All matches

Celje — Nafta Lendava, PrvaLiga

Slovenia, PrvaLiga

Celje
2.9DLLLW
—
Nafta Lendava
1.3LWWLL
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
68%20%12%
Celje68%Draw20%Nafta Lendava12%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Celje68%1.48—
XDraw20%4.92—
2Nafta Lendava12%8.24—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes60%

ours 1.68

No40%

ours 2.47

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricCeljeNafta LendavaCombined
Goals scored0.000.830.83
Conceded0.000.670.67
Corners8.09.38.7
Cards2.01.33.3
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

CeljeNafta Lendava

NK Celje 68%, NK Nafta 1903 Lendava 12%. The safest is “NK Celje or draw” at 87%.

NK Celje 68%Draw 20%NK Nafta 1903 Lendava 12%
1st half
51 · 29 · 20
2nd half
46 · 34 · 20
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total cards: Over 2.5

72%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Celje

  • awayNS Mura0:0
  • awayBayer Leverkusen0:2
  • awayBravo1:2
  • homeKoper0:1
  • awayAluminij2:0

Nafta Lendava

  • awayKoper0:2
  • awayBrinje-Grosuplje2:1
  • homeRadomlje3:1
  • homeMaribor2:3
  • awayOlimpija Ljubljana0:1

Head to head

  • 08/15/26PrvaLiga3:1
  • 05/18/25PrvaLiga6:1
  • 03/16/25PrvaLiga3:2
  • 12/01/24PrvaLiga0:0
  • 09/15/24PrvaLiga3:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
4Olimpija Ljubljana1042410:814
5Aluminij1034316:1113
6Nafta Lendava1041517:1613
7Celje933311:1112
8Brinje-Grosuplje1032514:1811
9NS Mura1023510:219

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.