Both teams to score
Yes57%
ours 1.75
No43%
ours 2.34
All matches
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NEC Nijmegen — Levski Sofia, UEFA Europa League
Europe, UEFA Europa League
NEC Nijmegen
2.2DLLDL
Levski Sofia
3.8LDWWW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
58%23%20%
NEC Nijmegen58%Draw23%Levski Sofia20%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1NEC Nijmegen1.73—
XDraw4.43—
2Levski Sofia5.08—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricNEC NijmegenLevski SofiaCombined
Goals scored0.670.501.17
Conceded2.330.332.66
Corners6.08.87.4
Cards1.40.82.1
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
NEC NijmegenLevski Sofia
Nijmegen Eendracht Combinatie 58%, PFC Levski Sofia 20%. The safest is “Nijmegen Eendracht Combinatie or draw” at 80%.
Nijmegen Eendracht Combinatie 58%Draw 23%PFC Levski Sofia 20%
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total corners: Under 10.5
68%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
NEC Nijmegen
- homeGo Ahead Eagles1:1
- awayJuventus0:5
- awayCambuur0:3
- homeExcelsior2:2
- homeFeyenoord1:3
Levski Sofia
- homeSalzburg0:1
- awayBotev Vratsa0:0
- homeCSKA 19481:0
- awaySlavia Sofia2:1
- awayBotev Plovdiv3:1
Head to head
No head-to-head matches on record.
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
56
Hearts20112:71
Hearts20112:7157
Real Sociedad10011:20
Real Sociedad10011:2058Levski Sofia10010:10
Levski Sofia10010:1059
AZ Alkmaar10010:10
AZ Alkmaar10010:1060
Celta Vigo10010:10
Celta Vigo10010:1061
Derry City20023:50
Derry City20023:5062
Celtic10011:30
Celtic10011:3063
Celje10010:20
Celje10010:2064
Hoffenheim10010:20
Hoffenheim10010:2065
AC Milan10010:20
AC Milan10010:2066
Marseille10011:40
Marseille10011:4067
Tromso20021:40
Tromso20021:4068
Midtjylland20020:30
Midtjylland20020:3069
AGF Aarhus20022:60
AGF Aarhus20022:6070
Vojvodina20021:50
Vojvodina20021:5071
Mjallby20020:40
Mjallby20020:4072
Trabzonspor20020:50
Trabzonspor20020:5073NEC Nijmegen10010:50
NEC Nijmegen10010:5074
KI Klaksvik20020:60
KI Klaksvik20020:6075
Vestri20020:60
Vestri20020:60Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.