Newport County — Colchester United, EFL League Two

England, EFL League TwoOctober 10 at 02:00 PM

Newport County

DWDDL

—

Colchester United

DDDLL

Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability

30%27%44%

Newport CountyMarket 2.5230%DrawMarket 3.4427%Colchester UnitedMarket 2.5144%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Newport County30%40%3.372.52-10.0

XDraw27%29%3.733.44-2.3

2Colchester United44%40%2.302.51+3.7

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes50%

ours 1.99book 1.61

No50%

ours 2.01book 2.18

Over 2.5 goals

This market opens with a subscription.

Over 9.5 corners

This market opens with a subscription.

Combos

Three kinds of combos — the most likely combination in each. The most likely of the three is highlighted. Every combination is in the tables below.

Combos come with a subscription: result and total, result and corners, both teams to score and total — probability, fair odds and the market comparison.

Confident answers

The line the model is most sure about — and how often such answers have come in.

Goals

This market opens with a subscription.

70%of such answers on goals came inlast 60 days · 890 matches

Corners

This market opens with a subscription.

69%of such answers on corners came inlast 60 days · 889 matches

Cards

This market opens with a subscription.

69%of such answers on cards came inlast 60 days · 886 matches

This is a probability, not a guarantee: roughly 3 answers in 10 don’t come in. Bookmaker odds on these lines are low — this block shows the model’s accuracy, not the value of a bet.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

Newport CountyColchester United

Newport County AFC 30%, Colchester United FC 44%. The safest is “No draw” at 73%.

Newport County AFC 30%Draw 27%Colchester United FC 44%

1st half

24 · 48 · 28

2nd half

25 · 37 · 38

Bookmakers: 2.52 · 3.44 · 2.51

Both teams to score?

How many goals?

How many corners?

How many yellow cards?

How many shots?

How many fouls?

How many offsides?

The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription

More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price

Basebalance of probability and price

Total goals: Over 1.5

71%1.20

High variancelow probability, high price

Two more scenarios — with a subscription

Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricNewport CountyColchester UnitedCombined

Goals scored0.670.831.50

Conceded0.831.502.33

Corners8.08.68.3

Cards1.80.82.6

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

The other six metrics — with a subscription

Free full access for 3 days when you sign up

Start free Sign in

Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.