Both teams to score
Yes60%
ours 1.67
No40%
ours 2.50
All matches
—
Newell's Old Boys — Union de Santa Fe, Primera División
Argentina, Primera División
Newell's Old Boys
1.7DWDDD
Union de Santa Fe
1.6LLLWW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
43%26%31%
Newell's Old Boys43%Draw26%Union de Santa Fe31%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Newell's Old Boys2.32—
XDraw3.82—
2Union de Santa Fe3.26—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricNewell's Old BoysUnion de Santa FeCombined
Goals scored0.330.330.66
Conceded0.171.171.34
Corners8.38.38.3
Cards0.73.03.7
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
Newell's Old BoysUnion de Santa Fe
Newell's Old Boys 43%, CA Unión de Santa Fe 31%. The safest is “No draw” at 75%.
Newell's Old Boys 43%Draw 26%CA Unión de Santa Fe 31%
1st half
31 · 38 · 31
2nd half
35 · 37 · 29
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
First half total: Over 0.5
70%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Newell's Old Boys
- homeLanus0:0
- awayPlatense1:0
- homeVelez Sarsfield1:1
- awayRosario Central1:1
- awayEstudiantes0:0
Union de Santa Fe
- awayBoca Juniors0:3
- homeIndependiente1:2
- awayTalleres de Cordoba1:2
- homeInstituto Córdoba3:2
- homeSarmiento4:1
Head to head
- 04/17/26Primera División3:2
- 11/01/25Primera División0:1
- 04/19/25Primera División1:1
- 06/03/17Primera División1:2
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
13
Defensa y Justicia271010734:3240
Defensa y Justicia271010734:324014
Lanus27108928:2638
Lanus27108928:263815Union de Santa Fe291071243:4237
Union de Santa Fe291071243:423716
Gimnasia Mendoza271061128:3436
Gimnasia Mendoza271061128:343617
Barracas Central2698922:2335
Barracas Central2698922:233518
Racing Club29981232:3435
Racing Club29981232:343519
Sarmiento261121330:3635
Sarmiento261121330:363520
Talleres de Cordoba28971228:3234
Talleres de Cordoba28971228:323421
San Lorenzo de Almagro288101020:2734
San Lorenzo de Almagro288101020:273422
Tigre27711928:2632
Tigre27711928:263223Newell's Old Boys27711926:3532
Newell's Old Boys27711926:353224
Tucuman27691224:2927
Tucuman27691224:292725
Banfield26761328:3527
Banfield26761328:3527Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.