Both teams to score
Yes62%
ours 1.61
No38%
ours 2.63
All matches
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Newcastle Jets — Wellington Phoenix, A-League
Australia, A-League
Newcastle Jets
2.1DDWDD
Wellington Phoenix
1.4LWLWW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
52%24%24%
Newcastle Jets52%Draw24%Wellington Phoenix24%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Newcastle Jets1.92—
XDraw4.23—
2Wellington Phoenix4.13—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricNewcastle JetsWellington PhoenixCombined
Goals scored1.330.501.83
Conceded0.671.171.84
Corners9.813.811.8
Cards2.51.33.8
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
Newcastle JetsWellington Phoenix
Newcastle Jets FC 52%, Wellington Phoenix FC 24%. The safest is “No draw” at 77%.
Newcastle Jets FC 52%Draw 24%Wellington Phoenix FC 24%
1st half
45 · 35 · 21
2nd half
39 · 32 · 28
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total corners: Under 12.5
69%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Newcastle Jets
- homeSydney1:1
- awaySydney1:1
- homeCentral Coast Mariners4:0
- awayMelbourne Victory2:2
- homeAdelaide United1:1
Wellington Phoenix
- awayMacarthur0:4
- homeWestern Sydney Wanderers2:1
- awayMelbourne City0:2
- awayMelbourne Victory1:0
- awayBrisbane Roar2:1
Head to head
- 01/23/26A-League4:1
- 12/14/25A-League3:1
- 04/06/25A-League1:2
- 12/28/24A-League1:2
Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.