Both teams to score
Yes59%
ours 1.70book 1.34
No41%
ours 2.44book 2.99
All matches
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New York Red Bulls — San Diego, MLS
USA, MLS
New York Red Bulls
1.7LWWLD
San Diego
2.1DDLLL
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
40%25%35%
New York Red BullsMarket 2.6640%DrawMarket 3.9125%San DiegoMarket 2.5035%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1New York Red Bulls2.502.66+2.5
XDraw4.003.91-0.5
2San Diego2.862.50-5.0
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricNew York Red BullsSan DiegoCombined
Goals scored0.501.672.17
Conceded1.332.503.83
Corners11.58.810.2
Cards2.02.04.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
New York Red BullsSan Diego
New York Red Bulls 40%, San Diego FC 35%. The safest is “No draw” at 75%.
New York Red Bulls 40%Draw 25%San Diego FC 35%
1st half
39 · 36 · 25
2nd half
28 · 39 · 33
Bookmakers: 2.66 · 3.91 · 2.50
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total corners: Under 10.5
68%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
New York Red Bulls
- homeSt. Louis City0:3
- awayNew York City1:0
- awayColumbus Crew1:0
- awayLos Angeles0:2
- awaySeattle Sounders0:0
San Diego
- awayAustin3:3
- awayInter Miami2:2
- homePhiladelphia Union0:5
- homeSan Jose Earthquakes2:3
- awayOrlando City0:1
Head to head
No head-to-head matches on record.
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
17
New York City27891041:3633
New York City27891041:363318
Cincinnati2689955:6433
Cincinnati2689955:643319New York Red Bulls27961234:5133
New York Red Bulls27961234:513320San Diego27881147:4732
San Diego27881147:473221
Portland Timbers27951348:5132
Portland Timbers27951348:513222
Real Salt Lake27951340:4432
Real Salt Lake27951340:4432Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.