Both teams to score
Yes55%
ours 1.82
No45%
ours 2.22
All matches
—
New York City — Montreal Impact, MLS
USA, MLS
New York City
2.1DLWLD
Montreal Impact
0.9WLLLL
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
56%24%20%
New York City56%Draw24%Montreal Impact20%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1New York City1.80—
XDraw4.14—
2Montreal Impact4.92—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricNew York CityMontreal ImpactCombined
Goals scored0.330.500.83
Conceded0.330.170.50
Corners7.010.08.5
Cards1.02.03.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
New York CityMontreal Impact
New York City FC 56%, Montreal Impact 20%. The safest is “New York City FC or draw” at 79%.
New York City FC 56%Draw 24%Montreal Impact 20%
1st half
43 · 36 · 21
2nd half
36 · 40 · 24
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total goals: Under 3.5
72%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
New York City
- awayAtlanta United2:2
- homeNew York Red Bulls0:1
- awayReal Salt Lake2:0
- homeNew England Revolution1:2
- homeNashville SC0:0
Montreal Impact
- homeCincinnati3:1
- homeColumbus Crew0:2
- awayColorado Rapids0:1
- homeCharlotte1:2
- awayPhiladelphia Union0:2
Head to head
- 04/25/26MLS0:1
- 06/28/25MLS0:1
- 05/10/25MLS0:1
- 10/19/24MLS0:2
- 07/03/24MLS2:0
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
15
LA Galaxy28991037:4436
LA Galaxy28991037:443616
Orlando City271041348:6434
Orlando City271041348:643417New York City27891041:3633
New York City27891041:363318
Cincinnati2689955:6433
Cincinnati2689955:643319
New York Red Bulls27961234:5133
New York Red Bulls27961234:513320
San Diego27881147:4732
San Diego27881147:473221
Portland Timbers27951348:5132
Portland Timbers27951348:513222
Real Salt Lake27951340:4432
Real Salt Lake27951340:443223
Austin277101035:4731
Austin277101035:473124
DC United26612834:4230
DC United26612834:423025
Columbus Crew27851439:4329
Columbus Crew27851439:432926
Minnesota United27781240:4929
Minnesota United27781240:492927
Toronto276111039:5129
Toronto276111039:512928
Atlanta United27761432:4527
Atlanta United27761432:452729Montreal Impact27661534:5424
Montreal Impact27661534:542430
Sporting Kansas City27631832:6521
Sporting Kansas City27631832:6521Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.