Both teams to score
Yes56%
ours 1.79
No44%
ours 2.27
All matches
—
New York City — Los Angeles, MLS
USA, MLS
New York City
2.1DLWLD
Los Angeles
2.6LDLWD
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
42%26%33%
New York City42%Draw26%Los Angeles33%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1New York City2.39—
XDraw3.91—
2Los Angeles3.07—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricNew York CityLos AngelesCombined
Goals scored0.830.831.66
Conceded0.831.001.83
Corners11.814.012.9
Cards1.32.53.8
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
New York CityLos Angeles
New York City FC 42%, Los Angeles FC 33%. The safest is “No draw” at 74%.
New York City FC 42%Draw 26%Los Angeles FC 33%
1st half
38 · 36 · 26
2nd half
29 · 41 · 30
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Second half total: Over 0.5
68%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
New York City
- awayAtlanta United2:2
- homeNew York Red Bulls0:1
- awayReal Salt Lake2:0
- homeNew England Revolution1:2
- homeNashville SC0:0
Los Angeles
- awayDallas0:1
- awaySan Jose Earthquakes2:2
- awaySporting Kansas City1:3
- homeNew York Red Bulls2:0
- awayReal Salt Lake2:2
Head to head
- 03/02/25MLS0:1
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
9
Charlotte27127847:3843
Charlotte27127847:384310
Chicago Fire26126846:3842
Chicago Fire26126846:384211Los Angeles28118943:3041
Los Angeles28118943:304112
Philadelphia Union271161054:4439
Philadelphia Union271161054:443913
Seattle Sounders27108935:3538
Seattle Sounders27108935:353814
Colorado Rapids271131338:3836
Colorado Rapids271131338:383615
LA Galaxy28991037:4436
LA Galaxy28991037:443616
Orlando City271041348:6434
Orlando City271041348:643417New York City27891041:3633
New York City27891041:363318
Cincinnati2689955:6433
Cincinnati2689955:643319
New York Red Bulls27961234:5133
New York Red Bulls27961234:5133Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.