Both teams to score
Yes53%
ours 1.88
No47%
ours 2.13
All matches
—
New York City — Atlanta United, MLS
USA, MLS
New York City
2.1DLWLD
Atlanta United
1.1DWDLD
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
52%25%23%
New York City52%Draw25%Atlanta United23%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1New York City1.92—
XDraw3.99—
2Atlanta United4.40—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricNew York CityAtlanta UnitedCombined
Goals scored0.330.500.83
Conceded0.500.330.83
Corners10.07.58.8
Cards1.51.53.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
New York CityAtlanta United
New York City FC 52%, Atlanta United FC 23%. The safest is “New York City FC or draw” at 75%.
New York City FC 52%Draw 25%Atlanta United FC 23%
1st half
41 · 39 · 20
2nd half
32 · 41 · 27
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total goals: Over 1.5
69%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
New York City
- awayAtlanta United2:2
- homeNew York Red Bulls0:1
- awayReal Salt Lake2:0
- homeNew England Revolution1:2
- homeNashville SC0:0
Atlanta United
- homeNew York City2:2
- awayPortland Timbers1:0
- awayDC United0:0
- homeOrlando City2:3
- awayInter Miami2:2
Head to head
- 09/26/26MLS2:2
- 06/12/25MLS4:0
- 03/29/25MLS3:4
- 07/17/24MLS2:2
- 04/06/24MLS1:1
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
15
LA Galaxy28991037:4436
LA Galaxy28991037:443616
Orlando City271041348:6434
Orlando City271041348:643417New York City27891041:3633
New York City27891041:363318
Cincinnati2689955:6433
Cincinnati2689955:643319
New York Red Bulls27961234:5133
New York Red Bulls27961234:513320
San Diego27881147:4732
San Diego27881147:473221
Portland Timbers27951348:5132
Portland Timbers27951348:513222
Real Salt Lake27951340:4432
Real Salt Lake27951340:443223
Austin277101035:4731
Austin277101035:473124
DC United26612834:4230
DC United26612834:423025
Columbus Crew27851439:4329
Columbus Crew27851439:432926
Minnesota United27781240:4929
Minnesota United27781240:492927
Toronto276111039:5129
Toronto276111039:512928Atlanta United27761432:4527
Atlanta United27761432:452729
Montreal Impact27661534:5424
Montreal Impact27661534:542430
Sporting Kansas City27631832:6521
Sporting Kansas City27631832:6521Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.