Neuchâtel Xamax FCS — FC Winterthur, Challenge League

Switzerland, Challenge LeagueOctober 9 at 05:30 PM

Neuchâtel Xamax FCS

LWLLL

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FC Winterthur

0.7WWWDD

Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability

23%25%51%

Neuchâtel Xamax FCS23%Draw25%FC Winterthur51%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Neuchâtel Xamax FCS23%4.27—

XDraw25%3.94—

2FC Winterthur51%1.95—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes55%

ours 1.83

No45%

ours 2.21

Over 2.5 goals

This market opens with a subscription.

Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricNeuchâtel Xamax FCSFC WinterthurCombined

Goals scored1.002.003.00

Conceded2.330.673.00

Corners8.810.59.7

Cards1.72.34.0

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

The other six metrics — with a subscription

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Confident answers

The line the model is most sure about — and how often such answers have come in.

Goals

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70%of such answers on goals came inlast 60 days · 878 matches

Corners

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70%of such answers on corners came inlast 60 days · 877 matches

Cards

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68%of such answers on cards came inlast 60 days · 874 matches

This is a probability, not a guarantee: roughly 3 answers in 10 don’t come in. Bookmaker odds on these lines are low — this block shows the model’s accuracy, not the value of a bet.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

Neuchâtel Xamax FCSFC Winterthur

Neuchâtel Xamax FCS 23%, FC Winterthur 51%. The safest is “FC Winterthur or draw” at 81%.

Neuchâtel Xamax FCS 23%Draw 25%FC Winterthur 51%

1st half

15 · 38 · 47

2nd half

22 · 37 · 41

Both teams to score?

How many goals?

How many corners?

How many yellow cards?

How many shots?

How many fouls?

How many offsides?

The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription

More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price

Basebalance of probability and price

Total corners: Under 11.5

71%

High variancelow probability, high price

Two more scenarios — with a subscription

Form and context