Both teams to score
Yes58%
ours 1.73
No42%
ours 2.37
All matches
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Nashville SC — Philadelphia Union, MLS
USA, MLS
Nashville SC
2.6WWDLD
Philadelphia Union
2.2WWWWW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
46%25%29%
Nashville SC46%Draw25%Philadelphia Union29%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Nashville SC2.18—
XDraw4.00—
2Philadelphia Union3.44—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricNashville SCPhiladelphia UnionCombined
Goals scored0.831.332.16
Conceded0.000.830.83
Corners9.510.510.0
Cards1.03.04.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
Nashville SCPhiladelphia Union
Nashville SC MLS 46%, Philadelphia Union 29%. The safest is “No draw” at 74%.
Nashville SC MLS 46%Draw 25%Philadelphia Union 29%
1st half
41 · 37 · 23
2nd half
28 · 39 · 33
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
First half total: Over 0.5
72%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Nashville SC
- homeToronto2:0
- homeChicago Fire3:0
- awayInter Miami2:2
- awayToronto1:2
- awayNew York City0:0
Philadelphia Union
- homeOrlando City4:2
- awaySporting Kansas City4:3
- awaySan Diego5:0
- homeCincinnati5:0
- homeMontreal Impact2:0
Head to head
- 05/02/26MLS0:0
- 07/06/25MLS1:0
- 03/16/25MLS3:1
- 07/20/24MLS0:3
- 04/07/24MLS1:2
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1Nashville SC27186355:2160
Nashville SC27186355:21602
Vancouver Whitecaps26155659:2650
Vancouver Whitecaps26155659:26503
St. Louis City27138648:3647
St. Louis City27138648:36474
Dallas27138650:4247
Dallas27138650:42475
Inter Miami271210564:5046
Inter Miami271210564:50466
New England Revolution27144945:3646
New England Revolution27144945:36467
San Jose Earthquakes27136849:3945
San Jose Earthquakes27136849:39458
Houston Dynamo27135934:3244
Houston Dynamo27135934:32449
Charlotte27127847:3843
Charlotte27127847:384310
Chicago Fire26126846:3842
Chicago Fire26126846:384211
Los Angeles28118943:3041
Los Angeles28118943:304112Philadelphia Union271161054:4439
Philadelphia Union271161054:443913
Seattle Sounders27108935:3538
Seattle Sounders27108935:353814
Colorado Rapids271131338:3836
Colorado Rapids271131338:3836Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.