Both teams to score
Yes57%
ours 1.76
No43%
ours 2.31
All matches
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Nagoya Grampus — Kyoto Sanga FC, J1 League
Japan, J1 League
Nagoya Grampus
LLLLW
Kyoto Sanga FC
WLLDW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
36%25%39%
Nagoya Grampus36%Draw25%Kyoto Sanga FC39%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Nagoya Grampus2.74—
XDraw4.03—
2Kyoto Sanga FC2.58—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricNagoya GrampusKyoto Sanga FCCombined
Goals scored0.000.330.33
Conceded0.170.170.34
Corners6.010.08.0
Cards1.02.03.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Confident answers
The line the model is most sure about — and how often such answers have come in.
Goals
This market opens with a subscription.
Sign up70%of such answers on goals came inlast 60 days · 890 matches
Corners
This market opens with a subscription.
Sign up69%of such answers on corners came inlast 60 days · 889 matches
Cards
This market opens with a subscription.
Sign up69%of such answers on cards came inlast 60 days · 886 matches
This is a probability, not a guarantee: roughly 3 answers in 10 don’t come in. Bookmaker odds on these lines are low — this block shows the model’s accuracy, not the value of a bet.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
Nagoya GrampusKyoto Sanga FC
Nagoya Grampus 36%, Kyoto Sanga FC 39%. The safest is “No draw” at 75%.
Nagoya Grampus 36%Draw 25%Kyoto Sanga FC 39%
1st half
35 · 42 · 23
2nd half
33 · 35 · 33
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total goals: Under 3.5
71%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Nagoya Grampus
- awayFC Tokyo0:1
- awayV-Varen Nagasaki0:2
- homeFC Machida Zelvia1:3
- awaySanfrecce Hiroshima0:3
- homeFagiano Okayama2:1
Kyoto Sanga FC
- awayFagiano Okayama2:1
- homeKashiwa Reysol2:3
- awayFC Tokyo0:2
- awayYokohama F. Marinos1:1
- homeAvispa Fukuoka2:1
Head to head
- 08/10/25J1 League1:2
- 05/11/25J1 League1:1
- 08/07/24J1 League2:3
- 05/26/24J1 League1:1
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
12
Shimizu S-Pulse83146:810
Shimizu S-Pulse83146:81013
Mito Hollyhock823311:119
Mito Hollyhock823311:11914Kyoto Sanga FC822411:158
Kyoto Sanga FC822411:15815
V-Varen Nagasaki822410:158
V-Varen Nagasaki822410:15816
Gamba Osaka81348:146
Gamba Osaka81348:14617Nagoya Grampus82067:146
Nagoya Grampus82067:14618
Avispa Fukuoka81169:124
Avispa Fukuoka81169:12419
Tokyo Verdy80444:124
Tokyo Verdy80444:124Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.