Both teams to score
Yes59%
ours 1.71
No42%
ours 2.41
All matches
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Nagoya Grampus — Cerezo Osaka, J1 League
Japan, J1 League
Nagoya Grampus
LLLLW
Cerezo Osaka
DLDWL
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
39%25%37%
Nagoya Grampus39%Draw25%Cerezo Osaka37%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Nagoya Grampus2.60—
XDraw4.05—
2Cerezo Osaka2.72—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricNagoya GrampusCerezo OsakaCombined
Goals scored0.170.670.84
Conceded1.501.172.67
Corners6.013.39.6
Cards1.51.83.3
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Confident answers
The line the model is most sure about — and how often such answers have come in.
Goals
This market opens with a subscription.
Sign up70%of such answers on goals came inlast 60 days · 890 matches
Corners
This market opens with a subscription.
Sign up69%of such answers on corners came inlast 60 days · 889 matches
Cards
This market opens with a subscription.
Sign up69%of such answers on cards came inlast 60 days · 886 matches
This is a probability, not a guarantee: roughly 3 answers in 10 don’t come in. Bookmaker odds on these lines are low — this block shows the model’s accuracy, not the value of a bet.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
Nagoya GrampusCerezo Osaka
Nagoya Grampus 39%, Cerezo Osaka 37%. The safest is “No draw” at 76%.
Nagoya Grampus 39%Draw 25%Cerezo Osaka 37%
1st half
37 · 39 · 24
2nd half
30 · 36 · 34
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total corners: Under 12.5
72%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Nagoya Grampus
- awayFC Tokyo0:1
- awayV-Varen Nagasaki0:2
- homeFC Machida Zelvia1:3
- awaySanfrecce Hiroshima0:3
- homeFagiano Okayama2:1
Cerezo Osaka
- awayV-Varen Nagasaki1:1
- awaySanfrecce Hiroshima1:6
- homeTokyo Verdy0:0
- homeKashiwa Reysol2:0
- awayVissel Kobe0:1
Head to head
- 10/04/25J1 League2:1
- 03/08/25J1 League1:1
- 06/30/24J1 League1:2
- 04/21/24J1 League2:1
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
9
Fagiano Okayama841311:1013
Fagiano Okayama841311:101310
Urawa Red Diamonds840416:1812
Urawa Red Diamonds840416:181211Cerezo Osaka83237:1211
Cerezo Osaka83237:121112
Shimizu S-Pulse83146:810
Shimizu S-Pulse83146:81013
Mito Hollyhock823311:119
Mito Hollyhock823311:11914
Kyoto Sanga FC822411:158
Kyoto Sanga FC822411:15815
V-Varen Nagasaki822410:158
V-Varen Nagasaki822410:15816
Gamba Osaka81348:146
Gamba Osaka81348:14617Nagoya Grampus82067:146
Nagoya Grampus82067:14618
Avispa Fukuoka81169:124
Avispa Fukuoka81169:12419
Tokyo Verdy80444:124
Tokyo Verdy80444:124Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.