Both teams to score
Yes61%
ours 1.64
No39%
ours 2.57
All matches
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MSV Duisburg — TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II, 3. Liga
Germany, 3. Liga
MSV Duisburg
WWLWW
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II
WWDLW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
59%22%19%
MSV Duisburg59%Draw22%TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II19%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1MSV Duisburg1.70—
XDraw4.50—
2TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II5.29—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricMSV DuisburgTSG 1899 Hoffenheim IICombined
Goals scored2.672.004.67
Conceded1.170.832.00
Corners8.89.08.9
Cards1.71.83.5
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Confident answers
The line the model is most sure about — and how often such answers have come in.
Goals
This market opens with a subscription.
Sign up70%of such answers on goals came inlast 60 days · 890 matches
Corners
This market opens with a subscription.
Sign up69%of such answers on corners came inlast 60 days · 889 matches
Cards
This market opens with a subscription.
Sign up69%of such answers on cards came inlast 60 days · 886 matches
This is a probability, not a guarantee: roughly 3 answers in 10 don’t come in. Bookmaker odds on these lines are low — this block shows the model’s accuracy, not the value of a bet.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
MSV DuisburgTSG 1899 Hoffenheim II
MSV Duisburg 59%, TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II 19%. The safest is “MSV Duisburg or draw” at 77%.
MSV Duisburg 59%Draw 22%TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II 19%
1st half
41 · 34 · 26
2nd half
49 · 32 · 18
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total corners: Under 11.5
71%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
MSV Duisburg
- awaySV Wehen Wiesbaden4:1
- homeTSV Havelse2:1
- awayDüsseldorfer TuS Fortuna 18951:2
- awaySSV Jahn 2000 Regensburg2:1
- homeFC Würzburger Kickers3:0
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II
- homeSV Meppen 19121:0
- awayFC Ingolstadt 042:1
- homeSC Fortuna Köln2:2
- awaySG Sonnenhof Großaspach0:1
- homeSSV Jahn 2000 Regensburg5:1
Head to head
- 04/18/263. Liga3:1
- 11/21/253. Liga1:4
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1MSV Duisburg760119:718
MSV Duisburg760119:7182
FC Viktoria Köln750219:915
FC Viktoria Köln750219:9153
Rot-Weiss Essen742113:914
Rot-Weiss Essen742113:9144
1. FC Saarbrucken741219:1213
1. FC Saarbrucken741219:12135TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II741214:813
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II741214:8136
FC Hansa Rostock733115:1512
FC Hansa Rostock733115:15127
TSV Alemannia Aachen732211:811
TSV Alemannia Aachen732211:811Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.