Montevideo City 3:1 Liverpool Montevideo, Primera División
Uruguay, Primera DivisiónMatch finished
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Match stats
How the match went in numbers.
How the forecast did
In each market the forecast is one outcome: the most likely one before kick-off.
- Match result LandedMontevideo City44%
- Total goals LandedOver 2.555%
- Both teams to score LandedYes57%
The bar is our pre-match probability. The other outcomes in a market are not picks but the probability split: one of home, draw, away always happens.
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Form and context
Montevideo City
- homeDanubio1:0
- awayNacional0:2
- homePenarol1:1
- homeMaldonado0:2
- awayCentral Espanol4:1
Liverpool Montevideo
- awayMaldonado1:1
- homeProgreso3:2
- awayCentral Espanol2:1
- homeRacing Montevideo0:0
- awayMontevideo City1:3
Head to head
- 09/14/26Primera División3:1
- 03/16/26Primera División0:0
- 09/07/25Primera División1:1
- 03/15/25Primera División1:4
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
Penarol33207656:2767
Maldonado32178750:2859Montevideo City32176953:3757
Racing Montevideo311411636:2553
Nacional311641147:3852Liverpool Montevideo321311843:3150
Montevideo Wanderers331481142:4450
Central Espanol311081332:4238Full breakdown
Every market of the forecast published before the match.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.