All matches

Montevideo City 1:0 Danubio, Primera División

Uruguay, Primera DivisiónMatch finished

Montevideo City
2.4WLDLW
1:0HT 0:0
Danubio
1.6LWLDD
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Pre-match forecastpublished
56%25%20%
Montevideo CityMarket 1.8356%DrawMarket 3.3025%DanubioMarket 3.9020%
Line-upsMontevideo City4-3-3—Danubio4-4-2

Starting line-ups and substitutes. Usually out about an hour before kick-off.

Montevideo City4-3-3Danubio4-4-2

Montevideo City4-3-3

Coach: Marcelo Méndez

Starting XI

  • 1GKF. Torgnascioli
  • 17DFE. Agüero
  • 3DFK. Silva
  • 22DFB. Gutierrez
  • 14DFS. Zampiero
  • 5MFF. Pizzichillo70′
  • 8MFP. Siles87′
  • 20MFG. Montes
  • 10MFE. Obregón
  • 9FWS. Rodríguez59′88′
  • 7FWLuka Andrade70′

Substitutes

  • 15DFE. Busquets
  • 32MFS. Cáceres
  • 11MFN. da Silva70′
  • 23MFL. Duré
  • 19MFD. Guzmán70′79′
  • 24DFG. Kagelmacher88′
  • 18MFR. Lecchini
  • 30FWJ. Quintana
  • 13GKG. Rodríguez
  • 27MFJ. Tarán

Danubio4-4-2

Coach: L. Rocco

Starting XI

  • 1GKM. Goicoechea
  • 4DFM. Rinaldi
  • 19DFM. Brasil79′
  • 3DFG. Rodriguez
  • 6DFL. Sosa
  • 10MFM. Peralta
  • 16MFI. Rossi45′
  • 38MFJ. Trasante66′
  • 8MFS. Rodríguez66′
  • 21B. Azambuja46′
  • 77FWB. Tomatis19′

Substitutes

  • 17MFAlexander Velazquez
  • 80FWC. Tizón66′82′
  • 5MFJ. Millán
  • 32GKK. Martínez
  • 29DFM. Jourdan
  • 33MFD. Garcia
  • 20MFM. Ferreira19′
  • 30FWS. Fernández66′
  • 28FWE. Femia
  • 7MFE. Cabrera46′

Match stats

How the match went in numbers.

1.34xG1.01
54Possession, %46
11Shots8
3Shots on target2
10Corners3
2Yellow cards3
1Red cards0
3Offsides4

How the forecast did

In each market the forecast is one outcome: the most likely one before kick-off.

1 of 3
Main markets landedresult, half, totals, both to score
All forecast markets: landed 179 of 236void — 1
  • Match result Landed
    Montevideo City56%
  • Total goals Missed
    Over 2.550%

    Actual: Under 2.5 — we had 50%

  • Both teams to score Missed
    Yes55%

    Actual: No — we had 46%

The bar is our pre-match probability. The other outcomes in a market are not picks but the probability split: one of home, draw, away always happens.

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Montevideo City56%55%1.801.83+1.0
XDraw25%30%4.073.30-5.8
2Danubio20%26%5.043.90-5.8

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Form and context

Montevideo City

  • homeDanubio1:0
  • awayNacional0:2
  • homePenarol1:1
  • homeMaldonado0:2
  • awayCentral Espanol4:1

Danubio

  • awayMontevideo City0:1
  • homeCerro Largo2:1
  • awayDefensor Sporting0:1
  • homeMontevideo Wanderers1:1
  • awayJuventud1:1

Head to head

  • 10/09/26Primera División1:0
  • 07/24/26Primera División1:0
  • 04/04/26Primera División1:1
  • 09/28/25Primera División0:2
  • 06/07/25Primera División2:3

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1Penarol32206655:2666
2Maldonado31177749:2758
3Montevideo City32176953:3757
4Racing Montevideo311411636:2553
5Nacional311641147:3852
6Montevideo Wanderers321481041:4150
7Liverpool Montevideo311310842:3049
8Central Espanol311081332:4238
9Albion311071441:4237
10Juventud319101235:3937
11Defensor Sporting318111228:3635
12Cerro Largo31891429:3633
13Cerro31961623:4533
14Boston River31871629:4231
15Danubio325141326:4129
16Progreso31841927:4628

Full breakdown

Every market of the forecast published before the match.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.