Montevideo City 0:2 Maldonado, Primera División
Uruguay, Primera DivisiónMatch finished
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Match stats
How the match went in numbers.
How the forecast did
In each market the forecast is one outcome: the most likely one before kick-off.
- Match result MissedMontevideo City49%
Actual: Maldonado — we had 25%
- Total goals MissedOver 2.561%
Actual: Under 2.5 — we had 39%
- Both teams to score MissedYes61%
Actual: No — we had 39%
The bar is our pre-match probability. The other outcomes in a market are not picks but the probability split: one of home, draw, away always happens.
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Form and context
Montevideo City
- homeDanubio1:0
- awayNacional0:2
- homePenarol1:1
- homeMaldonado0:2
- awayCentral Espanol4:1
Maldonado
- homeLiverpool Montevideo1:1
- homeCentral Espanol3:0
- awayMontevideo City2:0
- homeCerro Largo2:0
- awayDefensor Sporting0:1
Head to head
- 09/27/26Primera División0:2
- 06/06/26Primera División2:4
- 03/24/26Primera División0:1
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
Penarol32206655:2666Maldonado32178750:2859Montevideo City32176953:3757
Racing Montevideo311411636:2553
Nacional311641147:3852Full breakdown
Every market of the forecast published before the match.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.