Both teams to score
Yes53%
ours 1.88book 1.93
No47%
ours 2.14book 1.80
All matches
Montevideo City — Cerro, Primera División
Uruguay, Primera División
Montevideo City
2.4LWLDL
Cerro
1.7DWLDL
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
57%24%19%
Montevideo CityMarket 1.5057%DrawMarket 4.2024%CerroMarket 5.8519%
Model vs market
Our probability against the market’s — the bookmaker price with its margin removed. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Montevideo City1.741.50-4.5
XDraw4.234.20+1.5
2Cerro5.305.85+3.0
our modelmarket — bookmaker price, margin removed
Quick markets
The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.
Over 2.5 goals
This market opens with Premium.
Over 9.5 corners
This market opens with Premium.
Goals and corners — with Premium
Every pick of the day, full match analysis, scenarios and combos.
3 days freeAlready have an account? Sign in
Combos
Combos come with Premium: result and total, result and corners, both teams to score and total — probability, fair odds and the market comparison.
Combos — with Premium
Every pick of the day, full match analysis, scenarios and combos.
3 days freeAlready have an account? Sign in
Confident answers
The line where the model is closest to 72% — and how often such answers have come in.
Goals
This market opens with Premium.
71%of such answers on goals came inlast 60 days · 2295 matches
Corners
This market opens with Premium.
71%of such answers on corners came inlast 60 days · 2290 matches
Cards
This market opens with Premium.
71%of such answers on cards came inlast 60 days · 2279 matches
Lines for goals, corners and cards — with Premium
Every pick of the day, full match analysis, scenarios and combos.
3 days freeAlready have an account? Sign in
This is a probability, not a guarantee: roughly 3 answers in 10 don’t come in. Bookmaker odds on these lines are low — this block is about the model’s accuracy.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
Montevideo CityCerro
Montevideo City Torque 57%, Club Atlético Cerro 19%. The safest is “Montevideo City Torque or draw” at 83%.
Montevideo City Torque 57%Draw 24%Club Atlético Cerro 19%
1st half
42 · 40 · 19
2nd half
50 · 35 · 14
Bookmakers: 1.50 · 4.20 · 5.85
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with Premium
Every pick of the day, full match analysis, scenarios and combos.
3 days freeAlready have an account? Sign in
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Match result: Home
57%1.50
Two more scenarios — with Premium
Every pick of the day, full match analysis, scenarios and combos.
3 days freeAlready have an account? Sign in
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricMontevideo CityCerroCombined
Goals scored0.601.001.60
Conceded1.401.402.80
Corners9.26.27.7
Cards2.83.86.6
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with Premium
Every pick of the day, full match analysis, scenarios and combos.
3 days freeAlready have an account? Sign in
Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Insights
What to know before the match: recent games, the table, head-to-head. Only facts from played matches — no model opinions.
Montevideo City- Conceded in 4 of the last 5 matches7 goals conceded
- 2nd in the league for corners — 9.6 per match16 teams in the league
- One win in the last 5 matches1:2, 1:0, 0:2, 1:1, 0:2
Cerro- Unbeaten away in 4 matches3:2, 0:0, 3:1, 1:1, 0:4
- Worst defence in the league — 48 conceded in 33 matches12th place, 37 points
- Most yellow cards in the league — 3.4 per match16 teams in the league
Based on played matches of the current season and recent games. A fact is shown only when it stands out from the usual.
Form and context
Montevideo City
- awayAlbion1:2
- homeDanubio1:0
- awayNacional0:2
- homePenarol1:1
- homeMaldonado0:2
Cerro
- homeCerro Largo1:1
- awayDefensor Sporting3:2
- homeMontevideo Wanderers0:2
- awayJuventud0:0
- homePenarol1:2
Head to head
- 04/19/26Primera División1:1
- 10/18/25Primera División1:2
- 04/20/25Primera División2:1
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1
Penarol33207656:2767
Penarol33207656:27672
Maldonado32178750:2859
Maldonado32178750:28593Montevideo City331761054:3957
Montevideo City331761054:39574
Racing Montevideo331511739:2756
Racing Montevideo331511739:27565
Nacional321741148:3855
Nacional321741148:38556
Liverpool Montevideo321311843:3150
Liverpool Montevideo321311843:31507
Montevideo Wanderers341481242:4750
Montevideo Wanderers341481242:47508
Albion331271444:4343
Albion331271444:43439
Juventud3310101337:4140
Juventud3310101337:414010
Central Espanol321081432:4338
Central Espanol321081432:433811
Boston River331071633:4337
Boston River331071633:433712Cerro331071627:4837
Cerro331071627:483713
Defensor Sporting338111430:4035
Defensor Sporting338111430:403514
Cerro Largo338101530:3834
Cerro Largo338101530:3834Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with Premium
Every pick of the day, full match analysis, scenarios and combos.
3 days freeAlready have an account? Sign in
Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.