All matches

Montevideo City 1:1 Penarol, Primera División

Uruguay, Primera DivisiónMatch finished

Montevideo City
2.4WLDLW
1:1HT 1:1
Penarol
3.3WDWWW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Pre-match forecastpublished
27%26%47%
Montevideo CityMarket 3.2027%DrawMarket 3.2426%PenarolMarket 2.0647%
Line-upsMontevideo City4-3-3—Penarol4-2-3-1

Starting line-ups and substitutes. Usually out about an hour before kick-off.

Montevideo City4-3-3Penarol4-2-3-1

Montevideo City4-3-3

Coach: Marcelo Méndez

Starting XI

  • 1GKF. Torgnascioli
  • 17DFE. Agüero
  • 3DFK. Silva
  • 27MFJ. Tarán
  • 15DFE. Busquets
  • 20MFG. Montes
  • 8MFP. Siles
  • 23MFL. Duré
  • 30FWJ. Quintana
  • 11MFN. da Silva
  • 18MFR. Lecchini

Substitutes

  • 7FWLuka Andrade
  • 24DFG. Kagelmacher
  • 16FWignacio molina
  • 10MFE. Obregón
  • 21DFN. Perez
  • 5MFF. Pizzichillo
  • 13GKG. Rodríguez
  • 9FWS. Rodríguez
  • 26DFF. Silvera
  • 22DFB. Gutierrez

Penarol4-2-3-1

Coach: D. Aguirre

Starting XI

  • 29GKW. Aguerre
  • 4DFF. Romero
  • 6DFL. Ferreira
  • 34DFN. Herrera
  • 15DFM. Olivera
  • 5DFE. Remedi
  • 8MFN. Fernández
  • 7FWJ. Cabrera
  • 11FWC. Jaime
  • 32FWL. Umpiérrez
  • 19FWM. Arezo

Substitutes

  • 30FWS. Mülhethaler
  • 27DFL. Hernández
  • 77FWL. Angulo
  • 93MFD. Laxalt
  • 13MFE. Darias
  • 1GKS. Britos
  • 9FWF. Batista
  • 36DFB. Barboza
  • 28DFI. Alegre

Match stats

How the match went in numbers.

1.46xG0.88
60Possession, %40
11Shots4
4Shots on target2
0Corners5
1Yellow cards3
0Red cards0
13Fouls8
2Offsides0

How the forecast did

In each market the forecast is one outcome: the most likely one before kick-off.

1 of 3
Main markets landedresult, half, totals, both to score
All forecast markets: landed 190 of 255void — 1
  • Match result Missed
    Penarol47%

    Actual: Draw — we had 26%

  • Total goals Missed
    Over 2.559%

    Actual: Under 2.5 — we had 41%

  • Both teams to score Landed
    Yes61%

The bar is our pre-match probability. The other outcomes in a market are not picks but the probability split: one of home, draw, away always happens.

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Montevideo City27%31%3.733.20-4.4
XDraw26%31%3.803.24-4.5
2Penarol47%49%2.132.06-1.7

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Form and context

Montevideo City

  • homeDanubio1:0
  • awayNacional0:2
  • homePenarol1:1
  • homeMaldonado0:2
  • awayCentral Espanol4:1

Penarol

  • awayRacing Montevideo1:0
  • awayMontevideo City1:1
  • homeBoston River2:1
  • awayCerro2:1
  • homeAlbion3:1

Head to head

  • 09/30/26Primera División1:1
  • 02/07/26Primera División1:3
  • 11/09/25Primera División0:2
  • 05/17/25Primera División1:2

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1Penarol32206655:2666
2Maldonado32178750:2859
3Montevideo City32176953:3757
4Racing Montevideo311411636:2553
5Nacional311641147:3852

Full breakdown

Every market of the forecast published before the match.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.