All matches

Monagas — Estudiantes de Merida, Primera División

Venezuela, Primera División

Monagas
1.5DWWLW
—
Estudiantes de Merida
1.5DLWLD
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
45%27%28%
MonagasMarket 1.9645%DrawMarket 3.3027%Estudiantes de MeridaMarket 3.3828%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Monagas45%51%2.211.96-5.9
XDraw27%30%3.743.30-3.6
2Estudiantes de Merida28%30%3.563.38-1.5

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes58%

ours 1.74book 1.66

No42%

ours 2.36book 2.05

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricMonagasEstudiantes de MeridaCombined
Goals scored1.171.172.34
Conceded1.001.002.00
Corners7.88.78.3
Cards3.02.75.7
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

MonagasEstudiantes de Merida

Monagas SC 45%, Estudiantes de Mérida FC 28%. The safest is “No draw” at 74%.

Monagas SC 45%Draw 27%Estudiantes de Mérida FC 28%
1st half
34 · 41 · 24
2nd half
35 · 38 · 27

Bookmakers: 1.96 · 3.30 · 3.38

Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Double chance: Home or draw

72%1.22
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Monagas

  • awayRayo Zuliano1:1
  • homeZamora1:0
  • awayCaracas1:0
  • homeMetropolitanos0:1
  • awayAcademia Anzoategui3:1

Estudiantes de Merida

  • homeTrujillanos1:1
  • awayPortuguesa1:2
  • homeDeportivo Tachira2:0
  • awayCarabobo0:1
  • homeUniversidad Central de Venezuela1:1

Head to head

  • 04/19/26Primera División2:3
  • 07/19/25Primera División1:0
  • 02/06/25Primera División0:2
  • 11/10/24Primera División2:3
  • 11/03/24Primera División0:2

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
6Portuguesa301111840:3344
7Universidad Central de Venezuela301281044:3944
8Estudiantes de Merida301161335:3839
9Rayo Zuliano24831331:4527
10Caracas24511824:3126
11Monagas24741326:3525
12Zamora24671124:3525
13Trujillanos24361521:4415

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.