Both teams to score
Yes55%
ours 1.82book 1.69
No45%
ours 2.22book 2.00
All matches
Monagas — Academia Puerto Cabello, Primera División
Venezuela, Primera División
Monagas
1.8DWDWW
Academia Puerto Cabello
2.4DWWDL
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
28%28%44%
MonagasMarket 2.7928%DrawMarket 3.1428%Academia Puerto CabelloMarket 2.3144%
Model vs market
Our probability against the market’s — the bookmaker price with its margin removed. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Monagas3.562.79-4.2
XDraw3.633.14-1.2
2Academia Puerto Cabello2.252.31+5.4
our modelmarket — bookmaker price, margin removed
Quick markets
The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.
Over 2.5 goals
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Over 9.5 corners
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Goals and corners — with Premium
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Combos
Combos come with Premium: result and total, result and corners, both teams to score and total — probability, fair odds and the market comparison.
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Confident answers
The line where the model is closest to 72% — and how often such answers have come in.
Goals
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71%of such answers on goals came inlast 60 days · 2721 matches
Corners
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71%of such answers on corners came inlast 60 days · 2715 matches
Cards
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71%of such answers on cards came inlast 60 days · 2706 matches
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This is a probability, not a guarantee: roughly 3 answers in 10 don’t come in. Bookmaker odds on these lines are low — this block is about the model’s accuracy.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
MonagasAcademia Puerto Cabello
Monagas SC 28%, Academia Puerto Cabello 44%. The safest is “Academia Puerto Cabello or draw” at 72%.
Monagas SC 28%Draw 28%Academia Puerto Cabello 44%
1st half
23 · 42 · 35
2nd half
27 · 42 · 31
Bookmakers: 2.79 · 3.14 · 2.31
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
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More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
First half total: Under 1.5
64%1.40
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Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricMonagasAcademia Puerto CabelloCombined
Goals scored1.601.403.00
Conceded
Corners
Cards
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Insights
What to know before the match: recent games, the table, head-to-head. Only facts from played matches — no model opinions.
Monagas- Unbeaten in 5 matches3:3, 2:1, 1:1, 1:0, 1:0
- 13th of 14 for corners — 8.3 per match14 teams in the league
- 3 draws in the last 5 head-to-head meetings3:3, 1:1, 2:3, 1:2, 1:1
Academia Puerto Cabello- Unbeaten away in 5 matches1:0, 1:1, 0:0, 1:1, 1:0
- Conceded in 4 of the last 5 matches7 goals conceded
- 3 draws in the last 5 head-to-head meetings3:3, 1:1, 3:2, 2:1, 1:1
Based on played matches of the current season and recent games. A fact is shown only when it stands out from the usual.
Form and context
Monagas
- awayAcademia Puerto Cabello3:3
- homeEstudiantes de Merida2:1
- awayRayo Zuliano1:1
- homeZamora1:0
- awayCaracas1:0
Academia Puerto Cabello
- homeMonagas3:3
- awayTrujillanos1:0
- homePortuguesa2:1
- awayDeportivo Tachira1:1
- homeCarabobo0:2
Head to head
- 10/18/26Primera División3:3
- 04/25/26Primera División1:1
- 11/04/25Primera División2:3
- 10/21/25Primera División1:2
- 08/03/25Primera División1:1
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
3
Carabobo331413650:3055
Carabobo331413650:30554
Deportivo La Guaira321312742:2951
Deportivo La Guaira321312742:29515
Academia Puerto Cabello331311944:3550
Academia Puerto Cabello331311944:35506
Portuguesa321113840:3346
Portuguesa321113840:33467
Universidad Central de Venezuela321291145:4345
Universidad Central de Venezuela321291145:43458
Estudiantes de Merida321171438:4240
Estudiantes de Merida321171438:42409
Caracas26711830:3332
Caracas26711830:333210
Monagas26851331:3929
Monagas26851331:392911
Rayo Zuliano26831532:5127
Rayo Zuliano26831532:512712
Zamora26671326:4125
Zamora26671326:4125Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.