Both teams to score
Yes57%
ours 1.75
No43%
ours 2.33
All matches
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Modena FC — AC Cesena, Serie B
Italy, Serie B
Modena FC
WDLWW
AC Cesena
DDDWD
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
58%25%17%
Modena FC58%Draw25%AC Cesena17%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Modena FC1.73—
XDraw3.97—
2AC Cesena5.83—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricModena FCAC CesenaCombined
Goals scored1.001.002.00
Conceded0.500.831.33
Corners10.39.810.0
Cards1.82.03.8
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Confident answers
The line the model is most sure about — and how often such answers have come in.
Goals
This market opens with a subscription.
Sign up70%of such answers on goals came inlast 60 days · 890 matches
Corners
This market opens with a subscription.
Sign up69%of such answers on corners came inlast 60 days · 889 matches
Cards
This market opens with a subscription.
Sign up69%of such answers on cards came inlast 60 days · 886 matches
This is a probability, not a guarantee: roughly 3 answers in 10 don’t come in. Bookmaker odds on these lines are low — this block shows the model’s accuracy, not the value of a bet.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
Modena FCAC Cesena
Modena FC 58%, AC Cesena 17%. The safest is “Modena FC or draw” at 84%.
Modena FC 58%Draw 25%AC Cesena 17%
1st half
42 · 36 · 22
2nd half
54 · 33 · 13
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total corners: Over 7.5
69%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Modena FC
- homeEmpoli FC2:1
- awayFC Südtirol1:1
- homeUS Avellino0:1
- awayUS Cremonese3:0
- awayBenevento Calcio2:1
AC Cesena
- awaySS Juve Stabia1:1
- homeUS Cremonese2:2
- homeMantova FC1:1
- awayACD Virtus Entella2:1
- homeUC Sampdoria1:1
Head to head
- 03/07/26Serie B0:0
- 11/28/25Serie B0:1
- 05/13/25Serie B0:1
- 09/13/24Serie B2:2
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
2
FC Südtirol53209:311
FC Südtirol53209:3113
Mantova FC532010:511
Mantova FC532010:5114Modena FC53118:410
Modena FC53118:4105
Ascoli Picchio FC 189853117:410
Ascoli Picchio FC 189853117:4106
Hellas Verona FC521210:77
Hellas Verona FC521210:777
US Avellino52127:67
US Avellino52127:678AC Cesena51407:67
AC Cesena51407:679
Benevento Calcio52126:57
Benevento Calcio52126:5710
AC Pisa 190952128:87
AC Pisa 190952128:87Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.