All matches

Cracovia Krakow — Motor Lublin, Ekstraklasa

Poland, Ekstraklasa

Cracovia Krakow
1.8LLLLW
—
Motor Lublin
1.7DLLLD
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
48%25%26%
Cracovia Krakow48%Draw25%Motor Lublin26%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Cracovia Krakow48%2.08—
XDraw25%3.93—
2Motor Lublin26%3.79—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes59%

ours 1.69

No41%

ours 2.45

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricCracovia KrakowMotor LublinCombined
Goals scored0.500.501.00
Conceded1.170.832.00
Corners6.08.07.0
Cards2.01.03.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

Cracovia KrakowMotor Lublin

MKS Cracovia Kraków 48%, Motor Lublin SA 26%. The safest is “No draw” at 74%.

MKS Cracovia Kraków 48%Draw 25%Motor Lublin SA 26%
1st half
37 · 39 · 24
2nd half
37 · 38 · 25
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total corners: Over 7.5

71%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Cracovia Krakow

  • awayGKS Katowice2:3
  • awayWisla Plock1:3
  • homeGornik Zabrze0:1
  • awayRadomiak Radom1:2
  • homeWieczysta Krakow3:2

Motor Lublin

  • homeGornik Zabrze0:0
  • awayRakow1:2
  • homeLegia Warsaw2:3
  • homePiast Gliwice0:2
  • awayKorona Kielce1:1

Head to head

  • 05/16/26Ekstraklasa3:3
  • 11/22/25Ekstraklasa1:2
  • 04/26/25Ekstraklasa1:0
  • 10/26/24Ekstraklasa6:2

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
11Wisla Plock83239:1211
12Widzew Lodz916213:139
13Cracovia Krakow92259:148
14Radomiak Radom92257:208
15Slask Wroclaw913511:156
16Motor Lublin91359:156
17Wieczysta Krakow812511:175
18Rakow910812:213

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.