Both teams to score
Yes50%
ours 2.00
No50%
ours 2.00
All matches
—
Pogon Siedlce — Ruch Chorzow, 1. Liga
Poland, 1. Liga
Pogon Siedlce
WDWLW
Ruch Chorzow
DDWLW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
23%27%50%
Pogon Siedlce23%Draw27%Ruch Chorzow50%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Pogon Siedlce4.35—
XDraw3.65—
2Ruch Chorzow2.01—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Combos: result and total
Two events in one forecast. The model scores them together, from the probability of every scoreline — so the link between them is built in: when the home side is stronger, a win and plenty of goals tend to come together.
Combos come with a subscription: probability, fair odds and the market comparison for all 24 combinations.
Sign upCombos: result and corners
The result comes from the goals model, corners from the corners model. The link between them is measured on 66,000 played matches: the winning side usually takes fewer corners, because the team chasing the game does the crossing. The market has no ready line for these combinations, so «Market» here is a parlay of two separate bets: the result and the corners total.
Corner combos come with a subscription: probability and fair odds for all 48 combinations.
Sign upAverage totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricPogon SiedlceRuch ChorzowCombined
Goals scored0.331.001.33
Conceded0.170.670.84
Corners8.010.09.0
Cards2.01.33.3
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Confident answers
The line the model is most sure about — and how often such answers have come in.
Goals
This market opens with a subscription.
Sign up70%of such answers on goals came inlast 60 days · 890 matches
Corners
This market opens with a subscription.
Sign up69%of such answers on corners came inlast 60 days · 889 matches
Cards
This market opens with a subscription.
Sign up69%of such answers on cards came inlast 60 days · 886 matches
This is a probability, not a guarantee: roughly 3 answers in 10 don’t come in. Bookmaker odds on these lines are low — this block shows the model’s accuracy, not the value of a bet.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
Pogon SiedlceRuch Chorzow
MKP Pogoń Siedlce 23%, KS Ruch Chorzów 50%. The safest is “KS Ruch Chorzów or draw” at 77%.
MKP Pogoń Siedlce 23%Draw 27%KS Ruch Chorzów 50%
1st half
17 · 43 · 40
2nd half
25 · 38 · 37
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total corners: Over 8.5
72%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Pogon Siedlce
- homeArka Gdynia 19292:1
- awayChrobry Glogow0:0
- homeFKS Stal Mielec2:0
- awayKS Lechia Gdańsk0:1
- homePolonia Warszawa1:0
Ruch Chorzow
- awayPolonia Bytom0:0
- homePodbeskidzie3:3
- homeUnia Skierniewice3:1
- awayChrobry Glogow0:2
- awayStal Rzeszow1:0
Head to head
- 02/13/261. Liga2:1
- 08/08/251. Liga2:0
- 02/17/251. Liga1:1
- 08/02/241. Liga1:1
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
8
KS Lechia Gdańsk941417:1513
KS Lechia Gdańsk941417:15139
Chrobry Glogow933311:812
Chrobry Glogow933311:81210Pogon Siedlce83329:712
Pogon Siedlce83329:71211Ruch Chorzow93339:1112
Ruch Chorzow93339:111212
Arka Gdynia 1929932411:1111
Arka Gdynia 1929932411:111113
Unia Skierniewice931510:1510
Unia Skierniewice931510:1510Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.