All matches

Mirassol — Sao Paulo, Serie A

Brazil, Serie A

Mirassol
2.5WDWLD
—
Sao Paulo
2.0LWLWW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
49%26%25%
Mirassol49%Draw26%Sao Paulo25%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Mirassol49%2.03—
XDraw26%3.86—
2Sao Paulo25%4.04—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes56%

ours 1.80

No44%

ours 2.25

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricMirassolSao PauloCombined
Goals scored1.000.331.33
Conceded0.500.671.17
Corners12.012.012.0
Cards3.01.04.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

MirassolSao Paulo

Mirassol Futebol Clube 49%, São Paulo FC 25%. The safest is “No draw” at 74%.

Mirassol Futebol Clube 49%Draw 26%São Paulo FC 25%
1st half
37 · 38 · 25
2nd half
34 · 39 · 27
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Double chance: Home or draw

72%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Mirassol

  • homeBotafogo2:0
  • homeVitoria2:2
  • awayCoritiba2:1
  • awayFlamengo0:2
  • homePalmeiras1:1

Sao Paulo

  • homeSantos1:2
  • homeInternacional1:0
  • awayPalmeiras0:2
  • homeCA Mineiro2:0
  • homeRed Bull Bragantino2:1

Head to head

  • 04/26/26Serie A0:1
  • 10/19/25Serie A3:0
  • 05/24/25Serie A2:0

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
8Santos28118943:4141
9Coritiba281081037:4338
10Sao Paulo281061233:3236
11Red Bull Bragantino281061233:3236
12Botafogo28981141:4535
13Vitoria28961328:4233
14Corinthians28881229:3232
15Mirassol28881233:4232
16Vasco da Gama27871234:4131
17Gremio28781330:3829

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.