Both teams to score
Yes61%
ours 1.63
No39%
ours 2.58
All matches
—
Minnesota United — St. Louis City, MLS
USA, MLS
Minnesota United
1.9LLLLL
St. Louis City
1.8WWWDW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
41%25%35%
Minnesota United41%Draw25%St. Louis City35%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Minnesota United2.45—
XDraw4.06—
2St. Louis City2.89—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricMinnesota UnitedSt. Louis CityCombined
Goals scored1.002.003.00
Conceded2.000.832.83
Corners11.310.310.8
Cards1.81.83.5
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
Minnesota UnitedSt. Louis City
Minnesota United FC 41%, St. Louis City SC 35%. The safest is “No draw” at 75%.
Minnesota United FC 41%Draw 25%St. Louis City SC 35%
1st half
32 · 36 · 32
2nd half
37 · 37 · 26
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Second half total: Under 2.5
72%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Minnesota United
- awaySeattle Sounders1:3
- homeLA Galaxy2:3
- awaySt. Louis City2:4
- homeDallas1:2
- awayPortland Timbers4:5
St. Louis City
- awayNew York Red Bulls3:0
- homeToronto3:1
- homeMinnesota United4:2
- awayPortland Timbers2:2
- awayVancouver Whitecaps3:1
Head to head
- 09/13/26MLS2:4
- 07/27/25MLS2:1
- 05/18/25MLS3:0
- 10/20/24MLS5:0
- 09/15/24MLS3:1
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1
Nashville SC27186355:2160
Nashville SC27186355:21602
Vancouver Whitecaps26155659:2650
Vancouver Whitecaps26155659:26503St. Louis City27138648:3647
St. Louis City27138648:36474
Dallas27138650:4247
Dallas27138650:42475
Inter Miami271210564:5046
Inter Miami271210564:50466
New England Revolution27144945:3646
New England Revolution27144945:36467
San Jose Earthquakes27136849:3945
San Jose Earthquakes27136849:39458
Houston Dynamo27135934:3244
Houston Dynamo27135934:32449
Charlotte27127847:3843
Charlotte27127847:384310
Chicago Fire26126846:3842
Chicago Fire26126846:384211
Los Angeles28118943:3041
Los Angeles28118943:304112
Philadelphia Union271161054:4439
Philadelphia Union271161054:443913
Seattle Sounders27108935:3538
Seattle Sounders27108935:353814
Colorado Rapids271131338:3836
Colorado Rapids271131338:383615
LA Galaxy28991037:4436
LA Galaxy28991037:443616
Orlando City271041348:6434
Orlando City271041348:643417
New York City27891041:3633
New York City27891041:363318
Cincinnati2689955:6433
Cincinnati2689955:643319
New York Red Bulls27961234:5133
New York Red Bulls27961234:513320
San Diego27881147:4732
San Diego27881147:473221
Portland Timbers27951348:5132
Portland Timbers27951348:513222
Real Salt Lake27951340:4432
Real Salt Lake27951340:443223
Austin277101035:4731
Austin277101035:473124
DC United26612834:4230
DC United26612834:423025
Columbus Crew27851439:4329
Columbus Crew27851439:432926Minnesota United27781240:4929
Minnesota United27781240:492927
Toronto276111039:5129
Toronto276111039:512928
Atlanta United27761432:4527
Atlanta United27761432:4527Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.