Both teams to score
Yes55%
ours 1.83
No45%
ours 2.20
All matches
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Millwall — Lincoln City, Championship
England, Championship
Millwall
2.4DDLWL
Lincoln City
1.9LWWDD
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
48%26%25%
Millwall48%Draw26%Lincoln City25%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Millwall2.07—
XDraw3.79—
2Lincoln City3.97—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricMillwallLincoln CityCombined
Goals scored1.500.672.17
Conceded1.170.501.67
Corners12.512.012.3
Cards1.32.84.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
MillwallLincoln City
Millwall FC 48%, Lincoln City FC 25%. The safest is “No draw” at 73%.
Millwall FC 48%Draw 26%Lincoln City FC 25%
1st half
37 · 41 · 21
2nd half
33 · 39 · 28
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total goals: Over 1.5
72%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Millwall
- homeWest Ham2:2
- awayMiddlesbrough2:2
- awayBlackburn Rovers1:3
- homeBolton Wanderers4:0
- homeWrexham0:3
Lincoln City
- homeSwansea City1:2
- awayBristol City1:0
- awayPreston1:0
- homeSouthampton1:1
- homeBlackburn Rovers0:0
Head to head
No head-to-head matches on record.
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
10
Charlton Athletic83327:1012
Charlton Athletic83327:101211
Birmingham City825112:1111
Birmingham City825112:111112Millwall832315:1511
Millwall832315:151113Lincoln City83237:811
Lincoln City83237:81114
Wrexham82429:1210
Wrexham82429:121015
Bolton Wanderers831411:1510
Bolton Wanderers831411:1510Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.