All matches

Mil Mugan — Turan-T, Premyer Liqası

Azerbaijan, Premyer Liqası

Mil Mugan
1.5LLLWL
—
Turan-T
2.5WDWLD
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
24%26%50%
Mil Mugan24%Draw26%Turan-T50%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Mil Mugan24%4.15—
XDraw26%3.91—
2Turan-T50%1.99—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes46%

ours 2.18

No54%

ours 1.85

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricMil MuganTuran-TCombined
Goals scored1.000.831.83
Conceded1.830.672.50
Corners9.08.08.5
Cards1.81.83.6
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

Mil MuganTuran-T

Mil Muğan FK 24%, Turan-T IK 50%. The safest is “Turan-T IK or draw” at 74%.

Mil Muğan FK 24%Draw 26%Turan-T IK 50%
1st half
26 · 47 · 27
2nd half
22 · 42 · 37
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total goals: Under 2.5

69%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Mil Mugan

  • awaySabah1:3
  • homeNeftchi Baku2:3
  • awayQabala1:2
  • awaySafa1:0
  • awayZira1:3

Turan-T

  • homeZira1:0
  • awayAraz2:2
  • homeSumqayit2:1
  • awayKapaz0:1
  • homeInter Baki0:0

Head to head

  • 04/07/26Premyer Liqası1:1
  • 03/01/26Premyer Liqası0:0
  • 08/16/25Premyer Liqası0:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
2Sabah550014:115
3Qarabag54109:413
4Turan-T63216:411
5Zira63127:810
6Inter Baki62318:69
7Kapaz52124:77
8Mil Mugan61146:114
9Qabala61142:74
10Safa61052:113

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.