Both teams to score
Yes49%
ours 2.06
No51%
ours 1.95
All matches
Mil Mugan — Shamakhi, Premier League
Azerbaijan, Premier League
Mil Mugan
1.5WLLLL
Shamakhi
1.7WDWDW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
31%28%40%
Mil Mugan31%Draw28%Shamakhi40%
Model vs market
Our probability against the market’s — the bookmaker price with its margin removed. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Mil Mugan3.18—
XDraw3.55—
2Shamakhi2.48—
our modelmarket — bookmaker price, margin removed
Quick markets
The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.
Over 2.5 goals
This market opens with Premium.
Over 9.5 corners
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Goals and corners — with Premium
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Combos
Combos come with Premium: result and total, result and corners, both teams to score and total — probability, fair odds and the market comparison.
Combos — with Premium
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Confident answers
The line where the model is closest to 72% — and how often such answers have come in.
Goals
This market opens with Premium.
71%of such answers on goals came inlast 60 days · 2553 matches
Corners
This market opens with Premium.
71%of such answers on corners came inlast 60 days · 2548 matches
Cards
This market opens with Premium.
71%of such answers on cards came inlast 60 days · 2528 matches
Lines for goals, corners and cards — with Premium
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This is a probability, not a guarantee: roughly 3 answers in 10 don’t come in. Bookmaker odds on these lines are low — this block is about the model’s accuracy.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
Mil MuganShamakhi
Mil Muğan FK 31%, Shamakhi FK 40%. The safest is “Shamakhi FK or draw” at 71%.
Mil Muğan FK 31%Draw 28%Shamakhi FK 40%
1st half
24 · 51 · 25
2nd half
21 · 46 · 33
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
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More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Double chance: Away or draw
71%
Two more scenarios — with Premium
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Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricMil MuganShamakhiCombined
Goals scored1.002.203.20
Conceded2.001.203.20
Corners10.48.89.6
Cards2.02.44.4
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with Premium
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Insights
What to know before the match: recent games, the table, head-to-head. Only facts from played matches — no model opinions.
Mil Mugan- Conceded in 4 of the last 5 matches10 goals conceded
- One win in the last 5 matches1:0, 0:2, 1:3, 2:3, 1:2
Shamakhi- Unbeaten away in 5 matches1:1, 1:1, 4:1, 0:0, 0:0
- Unbeaten in 7 matches3:2, 1:1, 2:1, 1:1, 4:1
- 11 goals in the last 5 matches3:2, 1:1, 2:1, 1:1, 4:1
Based on played matches of the current season and recent games. A fact is shown only when it stands out from the usual.
Form and context
Mil Mugan
- homeTuran-T1:0
- homeQarabag0:2
- awaySabah1:3
- homeNeftchi Baku2:3
- awayQabala1:2
Shamakhi
- homeSafa3:2
- awayZira1:1
- homeAraz2:1
- awaySumqayit1:1
- awayKapaz4:1
Head to head
- 03/08/26Premier League0:0
- 02/22/26Premier League0:0
- 11/07/25Premier League0:1
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
3
Qarabag752014:717
Qarabag752014:7174
Turan-T84227:514
Turan-T84227:5145Shamakhi834112:913
Shamakhi834112:9136
Zira83329:1012
Zira83329:10127
Kapaz73227:811
Kapaz73227:8118
Sumqayit722310:108
Sumqayit722310:1089Mil Mugan82157:137
Mil Mugan82157:13710
Qabala81163:154
Qabala81163:15411
Safa81074:153
Safa81074:153Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.