Both teams to score
Yes55%
ours 1.83
No45%
ours 2.20
All matches
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Melbourne City — Sydney, A-League
Australia, A-League
Melbourne City
2.4DLWWW
Sydney
2.0LDDWD
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
43%26%31%
Melbourne City43%Draw26%Sydney31%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Melbourne City2.33—
XDraw3.90—
2Sydney3.18—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricMelbourne CitySydneyCombined
Goals scored1.170.501.67
Conceded0.830.501.33
Corners11.310.811.0
Cards2.32.54.8
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
Melbourne CitySydney
Melbourne City FC 43%, Sydney FC 31%. The safest is “No draw” at 74%.
Melbourne City FC 43%Draw 26%Sydney FC 31%
1st half
36 · 42 · 22
2nd half
35 · 35 · 30
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total goals: Over 1.5
72%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Melbourne City
- awayAuckland1:1
- homeAdelaide United1:2
- awayBrisbane Roar3:2
- homeWellington Phoenix2:0
- homeCentral Coast Mariners2:1
Sydney
- awayAuckland0:1
- awayNewcastle Jets1:1
- homeNewcastle Jets1:1
- awayMelbourne Victory1:0
- homeAuckland2:2
Head to head
- 03/17/26A-League1:0
- 01/03/26A-League0:0
- 05/03/25A-League5:1
- 03/29/25A-League3:2
Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.