Both teams to score
Yes40%
ours 2.51
No60%
ours 1.66
All matches
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Mash'al Mubarek — Termez Surkhon, Uzbekistan Super League
Uzbekistan, Uzbekistan Super League
Mash'al Mubarek
LLLLL
Termez Surkhon
WLWDD
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
21%26%53%
Mash'al Mubarek21%Draw26%Termez Surkhon53%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Mash'al Mubarek4.73—
XDraw3.81—
2Termez Surkhon1.90—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricMash'al MubarekTermez SurkhonCombined
Goals scored0.170.330.50
Conceded0.830.331.16
Corners8.09.58.8
Cards2.01.53.5
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Confident answers
The line the model is most sure about — and how often such answers have come in.
Goals
This market opens with a subscription.
Sign up70%of such answers on goals came inlast 60 days · 878 matches
Corners
This market opens with a subscription.
Sign up70%of such answers on corners came inlast 60 days · 877 matches
Cards
This market opens with a subscription.
Sign up68%of such answers on cards came inlast 60 days · 874 matches
This is a probability, not a guarantee: roughly 3 answers in 10 don’t come in. Bookmaker odds on these lines are low — this block shows the model’s accuracy, not the value of a bet.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
Mash'al MubarekTermez Surkhon
Mash'al Mubarek 21%, Termez Surkhon 53%. The safest is “Termez Surkhon or draw” at 78%.
Mash'al Mubarek 21%Draw 26%Termez Surkhon 53%
1st half
21 · 52 · 27
2nd half
17 · 37 · 45
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total corners: Under 11.5
72%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Mash'al Mubarek
- homeFK Pakhtakor Tashkent1:2
- awayFK Lokomotiv Tashkent0:3
- awayFK Sogdiana Jizak2:5
- homeFK Navbahor Namangan0:2
- homeFK Andijan0:1
Termez Surkhon
- homeFK Qo'qon 19121:0
- awayNeftchi Fargona1:2
- awayFK Bunyodkor1:0
- homeFK AGMK0:0
- awayFK Pakhtakor Tashkent0:0
Head to head
- 04/22/26Uzbekistan Super League1:2
- 09/18/25Uzbekistan Super League0:0
- 04/26/25Uzbekistan Super League0:0
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
10
Qizilqum Zarafshon PFK22921123:3029
Qizilqum Zarafshon PFK22921123:302911
FK Sogdiana Jizak22841038:4328
FK Sogdiana Jizak22841038:432812Termez Surkhon22751019:2826
Termez Surkhon22751019:282613
FK Bunyodkor22711422:3622
FK Bunyodkor22711422:362214
Xorazm FK Urganch23571120:3422
Xorazm FK Urganch23571120:342215
FK Qo'qon 191222481019:3020
FK Qo'qon 191222481019:302016Mash'al Mubarek22112011:444
Mash'al Mubarek22112011:444Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.