All matches

Manchester United — Roma, UEFA Champions League

Europe, UEFA Champions League

Manchester United
2.8DLWDW
—
Roma
3.3DWDWW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
58%23%19%
Manchester United58%Draw23%Roma19%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Manchester United58%1.71—
XDraw23%4.36—
2Roma19%5.37—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes54%

ours 1.84

No46%

ours 2.19

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricManchester UnitedRomaCombined
Goals scored0.000.000.00
Conceded0.000.000.00
Corners
Cards
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

The other six metrics — with a subscription

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

Manchester UnitedRoma

Manchester United FC 58%, AS Roma 19%. The safest is “Manchester United FC or draw” at 81%.

Manchester United FC 58%Draw 23%AS Roma 19%
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total corners: Under 10.5

68%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Manchester United

  • awayFulham1:1
  • homeManchester City0:1
  • homeSabah4:0
  • awayEverton2:2
  • homeIpswich Town5:2

Roma

  • homeInter Milan2:2
  • awayTorino2:0
  • awayFenerbahce1:1
  • homeAtalanta2:1
  • awayLecce4:0

Head to head

No head-to-head matches on record.

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
29Bayern Munich11005:03
30Barcelona11005:13
31Manchester United11004:03
32Como11004:13
33Stuttgart11003:13
34Sporting CP11003:13
35Manchester City11002:03
36Real Betis11003:23
37Lens11003:23
38Aston Villa11003:23
39Borussia Dortmund11003:23
40Liverpool11002:13
41Real Madrid11002:13
42Arsenal11001:03
43LASK31025:53
44Lech Poznan21015:53
45Omonia21011:13
46Celtic21014:53
47Vardar21013:43
48Riga21013:43
49KuPS41034:63
50Floriana21013:53
51Sparta Prague21012:43
52Shakhtar Donetsk10101:11
53Roma10101:11
54PSV10101:11
55Union Saint-Gilloise20115:61

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.