Both teams to score
Yes61%
ours 1.63
No39%
ours 2.58
All matches
—
Manchester United — Bournemouth, Premier League
England, Premier League
Manchester United
2.8DLWDW
Bournemouth
2.5LWDDD
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
49%25%26%
Manchester United49%Draw25%Bournemouth26%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Manchester United2.04—
XDraw3.93—
2Bournemouth3.90—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricManchester UnitedBournemouthCombined
Goals scored0.170.330.50
Conceded0.330.330.66
Corners14.59.512.0
Cards0.52.02.5
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
Manchester UnitedBournemouth
Manchester United FC 49%, AFC Bournemouth 26%. The safest is “No draw” at 75%.
Manchester United FC 49%Draw 25%AFC Bournemouth 26%
1st half
39 · 38 · 23
2nd half
38 · 35 · 27
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
First half total: Over 0.5
68%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Manchester United
- awayFulham1:1
- homeManchester City0:1
- homeSabah4:0
- awayEverton2:2
- homeIpswich Town5:2
Bournemouth
- homeLiverpool0:1
- awayReal Sociedad2:1
- homeBrentford2:2
- awayNewcastle United2:2
- homeEverton1:1
Head to head
- 03/20/26Premier League2:2
- 12/15/25Premier League4:4
- 04/27/25Premier League1:1
- 12/22/24Premier League0:3
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
10
Chelsea521210:127
Chelsea521210:12711
Ipswich Town52037:116
Ipswich Town52037:11612Manchester United51228:85
Manchester United51228:8513
Nottingham Forest51224:55
Nottingham Forest51224:5514
Sunderland51136:104
Sunderland51136:10415
Crystal Palace51136:114
Crystal Palace51136:11416
Aston Villa51134:94
Aston Villa51134:9417Bournemouth50326:83
Bournemouth50326:8318
Coventry City51041:103
Coventry City51041:10319
Fulham50235:82
Fulham50235:82Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.