Both teams to score
Yes62%
ours 1.62
No38%
ours 2.60
All matches
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Manchester City — PSG, UEFA Champions League
Europe, UEFA Champions League
Manchester City
3.7WWWWW
PSG
4.1WWWLD
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
53%23%24%
Manchester City53%Draw23%PSG24%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Manchester City1.88—
XDraw4.35—
2PSG4.19—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricManchester CityPSGCombined
Goals scored2.172.004.17
Conceded0.671.001.67
Corners9.67.08.3
Cards1.61.02.6
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
Manchester CityPSG
Manchester City FC 53%, Paris Saint-Germain FC 24%. The safest is “No draw” at 77%.
Manchester City FC 53%Draw 23%Paris Saint-Germain FC 24%
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total corners: Under 10.5
68%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Manchester City
- homeSunderland5:3
- awayManchester United1:0
- awayPorto2:0
- homeCoventry City1:0
- awayCrystal Palace4:1
PSG
- awayMarseille2:1
- awayBrest1:0
- homeSlovan Bratislava6:1
- homeMonaco1:2
- awayLille2:2
Head to head
- 01/22/25UEFA Champions League2:4
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
26
Mjallby41124:44
Mjallby41124:4427
NEC Nijmegen41123:74
NEC Nijmegen41123:7428PSG11006:13
PSG11006:1329
Bayern Munich11005:03
Bayern Munich11005:0330
Barcelona11005:13
Barcelona11005:1331
Manchester United11004:03
Manchester United11004:0332
Como11004:13
Como11004:1333
Stuttgart11003:13
Stuttgart11003:1334
Sporting CP11003:13
Sporting CP11003:1335Manchester City11002:03
Manchester City11002:0336
Real Betis11003:23
Real Betis11003:2337
Lens11003:23
Lens11003:23Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.