Both teams to score
Yes60%
ours 1.68
No40%
ours 2.47
All matches
—
Manchester City — Brighton, Premier League
England, Premier League
Manchester City
3.7WWWWW
Brighton
2.6WWDLW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
56%24%20%
Manchester City56%Draw24%Brighton20%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Manchester City1.79—
XDraw4.10—
2Brighton5.07—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricManchester CityBrightonCombined
Goals scored0.830.501.33
Conceded0.500.000.50
Corners11.011.011.0
Cards0.04.04.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
Manchester CityBrighton
Manchester City FC 56%, Brighton & Hove Albion FC 20%. The safest is “Manchester City FC or draw” at 76%.
Manchester City FC 56%Draw 24%Brighton & Hove Albion FC 20%
1st half
47 · 34 · 19
2nd half
33 · 38 · 29
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Most corners: Home
69%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Manchester City
- homeSunderland5:3
- awayManchester United1:0
- awayPorto2:0
- homeCoventry City1:0
- awayCrystal Palace4:1
Brighton
- homeArsenal3:0
- awayCoventry City5:0
- homeLeeds United1:1
- awayChelsea3:4
- homeTromso4:0
Head to head
- 01/07/26Premier League1:1
- 08/31/25Premier League1:2
- 03/15/25Premier League2:2
- 11/09/24Premier League1:2
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1Manchester City550013:515
Manchester City550013:5152
Arsenal54018:412
Arsenal54018:4123Brighton531116:510
Brighton531116:5104
Brentford523010:49
Brentford523010:495
Leeds United52307:39
Leeds United52307:39Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.