Both teams to score
Yes41%
ours 2.42
No59%
ours 1.71
All matches
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Manchester City — AEK Athens, UEFA Champions League
Europe, UEFA Champions League
Manchester City
3.7WWWWW
AEK Athens
3.6WDWWD
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
83%12%
Manchester City83%Draw12%AEK Athens5%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Manchester City1.21—
XDraw8.20—
2AEK Athens20.33—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricManchester CityAEK AthensCombined
Goals scored1.330.672.00
Conceded0.500.330.83
Corners10.310.010.2
Cards1.71.73.3
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
Manchester CityAEK Athens
Manchester City FC 83%, AEK Athens FC 5%. The safest is “Manchester City FC or draw” at 95%.
Manchester City FC 83%Draw 12%AEK Athens FC 5%
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total corners: Under 10.5
71%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Manchester City
- homeSunderland5:3
- awayManchester United1:0
- awayPorto2:0
- homeCoventry City1:0
- awayCrystal Palace4:1
AEK Athens
- awayVolos New2:1
- awayAsteras Tripolis1:1
- homeLASK1:0
- homeAris Thessaloniki5:0
- awayKifisias1:1
Head to head
No head-to-head matches on record.
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
9
Kairat63035:49
Kairat63035:4910
Kauno Zalgiris62226:108
Kauno Zalgiris62226:10811AEK Athens32105:07
AEK Athens32105:0712
Universitatea Craiova42117:47
Universitatea Craiova42117:4713
KI Klaksvik42114:37
KI Klaksvik42114:3714
Vikingur Reykjavik42115:57
Vikingur Reykjavik42115:5715
Red Star Belgrade42029:36
Red Star Belgrade42029:3616
Egnatia413012:76
Egnatia413012:7617
Sturm Graz42026:36
Sturm Graz42026:3618
Shamrock Rovers42027:66
Shamrock Rovers42027:6619
Celje613210:106
Celje613210:10620
AGF Aarhus42027:106
AGF Aarhus42027:10621
Larne42023:106
Larne42023:10622
Iberia 199941216:75
Iberia 199941216:7523
Lincoln Red Imps41214:55
Lincoln Red Imps41214:5524
Lyon41126:54
Lyon41126:5425
Viking31116:64
Viking31116:6426
Mjallby41124:44
Mjallby41124:4427
NEC Nijmegen41123:74
NEC Nijmegen41123:7428
PSG11006:13
PSG11006:1329
Bayern Munich11005:03
Bayern Munich11005:0330
Barcelona11005:13
Barcelona11005:1331
Manchester United11004:03
Manchester United11004:0332
Como11004:13
Como11004:1333
Stuttgart11003:13
Stuttgart11003:1334
Sporting CP11003:13
Sporting CP11003:1335Manchester City11002:03
Manchester City11002:0336
Real Betis11003:23
Real Betis11003:2337
Lens11003:23
Lens11003:23Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.