All matches

Malmo — Hammarby, Allsvenskan

Sweden, Allsvenskan

Malmo
2.4LWDWL
—
Hammarby
2.9WWDLW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
30%23%47%
Malmo30%Draw23%Hammarby47%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Malmo30%3.31—
XDraw23%4.40—
2Hammarby47%2.13—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes60%

ours 1.68

No40%

ours 2.47

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricMalmoHammarbyCombined
Goals scored0.670.671.34
Conceded0.500.170.67
Corners9.08.58.8
Cards1.51.53.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

MalmoHammarby

Malmö FF 30%, Hammarby IF 47%. The safest is “No draw” at 77%.

Malmö FF 30%Draw 23%Hammarby IF 47%
1st half
28 · 36 · 37
2nd half
27 · 37 · 36
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total corners: Over 7.5

72%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Malmo

  • awayVasteras0:2
  • homeÖrgryte IS4:1
  • homeAIK0:0
  • awaySirius1:0
  • homeDjurgarden0:3

Hammarby

  • awayDegerfors1:0
  • homeBrommapojkarna3:1
  • awayÖrgryte IS1:1
  • awayAIK2:3
  • homeGAIS2:0

Head to head

  • 05/17/26Allsvenskan1:4
  • 10/27/25Allsvenskan1:3
  • 04/23/25Allsvenskan0:2
  • 11/02/24Allsvenskan2:2
  • 04/07/24Allsvenskan2:0

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1Sirius21153350:2848
2Hammarby22134549:2043
3Djurgarden21122745:2138
4Elfsborg22107531:2237
5Hacken2299439:3036
6Vasteras22105734:3535
7Malmo22103937:3333
8AIK2195730:3332
9IFK Goteborg2295831:4132

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.