Both teams to score
Yes60%
ours 1.67
No40%
ours 2.49
All matches
—
Los Angeles — Minnesota United, MLS
USA, MLS
Los Angeles
2.6LDLWD
Minnesota United
1.9LLLLL
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
53%24%23%
Los Angeles53%Draw24%Minnesota United23%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Los Angeles1.88—
XDraw4.18—
2Minnesota United4.36—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricLos AngelesMinnesota UnitedCombined
Goals scored0.330.170.50
Conceded0.500.501.00
Corners12.512.012.3
Cards3.02.05.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
Los AngelesMinnesota United
Los Angeles FC 53%, Minnesota United FC 23%. The safest is “Los Angeles FC or draw” at 76%.
Los Angeles FC 53%Draw 24%Minnesota United FC 23%
1st half
45 · 34 · 21
2nd half
34 · 38 · 28
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total corners: Over 8.5
71%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Los Angeles
- awayDallas0:1
- awaySan Jose Earthquakes2:2
- awaySporting Kansas City1:3
- homeNew York Red Bulls2:0
- awayReal Salt Lake2:2
Minnesota United
- awaySeattle Sounders1:3
- homeLA Galaxy2:3
- awaySt. Louis City2:4
- homeDallas1:2
- awayPortland Timbers4:5
Head to head
- 04/25/26MLS1:0
- 07/17/25MLS1:0
- 02/22/25MLS1:0
- 05/30/24MLS2:0
- 03/17/24MLS0:2
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
9
Charlotte27127847:3843
Charlotte27127847:384310
Chicago Fire26126846:3842
Chicago Fire26126846:384211Los Angeles28118943:3041
Los Angeles28118943:304112
Philadelphia Union271161054:4439
Philadelphia Union271161054:443913
Seattle Sounders27108935:3538
Seattle Sounders27108935:353814
Colorado Rapids271131338:3836
Colorado Rapids271131338:383615
LA Galaxy28991037:4436
LA Galaxy28991037:443616
Orlando City271041348:6434
Orlando City271041348:643417
New York City27891041:3633
New York City27891041:363318
Cincinnati2689955:6433
Cincinnati2689955:643319
New York Red Bulls27961234:5133
New York Red Bulls27961234:513320
San Diego27881147:4732
San Diego27881147:473221
Portland Timbers27951348:5132
Portland Timbers27951348:513222
Real Salt Lake27951340:4432
Real Salt Lake27951340:443223
Austin277101035:4731
Austin277101035:473124
DC United26612834:4230
DC United26612834:423025
Columbus Crew27851439:4329
Columbus Crew27851439:432926Minnesota United27781240:4929
Minnesota United27781240:492927
Toronto276111039:5129
Toronto276111039:512928
Atlanta United27761432:4527
Atlanta United27761432:4527Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.