All matches

Liverpool — Manchester City, Premier League

England, Premier League

Liverpool
3.3WDWWD
—
Manchester City
3.7WWWWW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
34%26%40%
LiverpoolMarket 2.6434%DrawMarket 3.8226%Manchester CityMarket 2.6740%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Liverpool34%38%2.922.64-3.6
XDraw26%26%3.923.82-0.6
2Manchester City40%37%2.492.67+2.8

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes60%

ours 1.66book 1.47

No40%

ours 2.52book 2.53

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricLiverpoolManchester CityCombined
Goals scored1.502.504.00
Conceded0.830.831.66
Corners9.09.89.4
Cards2.21.53.7
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

LiverpoolManchester City

Liverpool FC 34%, Manchester City FC 40%. The safest is “No draw” at 74%.

Liverpool FC 34%Draw 26%Manchester City FC 40%
1st half
35 · 38 · 28
2nd half
33 · 36 · 31

Bookmakers: 2.64 · 3.82 · 2.67

Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Second half total: Under 2.5

71%1.30
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Liverpool

  • awayBournemouth1:0
  • homeFulham0:0
  • homeAtletico Madrid2:1
  • awayIpswich Town2:0
  • homeNottingham Forest2:2

Manchester City

  • homeSunderland5:3
  • awayManchester United1:0
  • awayPorto2:0
  • homeCoventry City1:0
  • awayCrystal Palace4:1

Head to head

  • 02/08/26Premier League1:2
  • 11/09/25Premier League0:3
  • 02/23/25Premier League2:0
  • 12/01/24Premier League2:0

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1Manchester City550013:515
2Arsenal54018:412
3Brighton531116:510
4Brentford523010:49
5Leeds United52307:39
6Liverpool52307:49
7Everton52306:39
8Hull City52216:48

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.