Both teams to score
Yes50%
ours 2.00book 1.97
No50%
ours 2.00book 1.73
All matches
—
Linfield — Bangor, NIFL Premiership
Northern Ireland, NIFL Premiership
Linfield
3.0WWDWW
Bangor
1.2LLWLD
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
74%17%
LinfieldMarket 1.2074%DrawMarket 5.5017%BangorMarket 10.8010%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Linfield1.361.20-9.5
XDraw5.945.50-1.3
2Bangor10.4610.80+0.3
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricLinfieldBangorCombined
Goals scored1.501.332.83
Conceded0.331.832.16
Corners9.59.09.3
Cards1.51.02.5
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
LinfieldBangor
Linfield FC 74%, Bangor FC 10%. The safest is “Linfield FC or draw” at 87%.
Linfield FC 74%Draw 17%Bangor FC 10%
1st half
51 · 36 · 13
2nd half
43 · 37 · 20
Bookmakers: 1.20 · 5.50 · 10.80
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
First half total: Over 0.5
70%1.23
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Linfield
- awayColeraine3:1
- homeCrusaders1:0
- awayPortadown1:1
- awayDungannon Swifts1:0
- homeCarrick Rangers1:0
Bangor
- homeColeraine2:3
- awayCrusaders1:2
- homePortadown3:1
- awayLimavady United1:3
- awayGlentoran1:1
Head to head
- 01/03/26NIFL Premiership6:1
- 11/22/25NIFL Premiership1:0
- 09/26/25NIFL Premiership3:0
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1
Coleraine1081122:1025
Coleraine1081122:10252Linfield971112:622
Linfield971112:6223
Larne651012:316
Larne651012:3164
Glentoran1051415:1016
Glentoran1051415:10165
Crusaders1050515:1815
Crusaders1050515:18156
Carrick Rangers1041515:1513
Carrick Rangers1041515:15137
Dungannon Swifts94149:1013
Dungannon Swifts94149:10138
Ballymena United933313:1112
Ballymena United933313:11129
Cliftonville1040612:1212
Cliftonville1040612:121210
Limavady United93159:1310
Limavady United93159:131011Bangor1012710:225
Bangor1012710:22512
Portadown100287:212
Portadown100287:212Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.