All matches

Limavady United — Ballymena United, NIFL Premiership

Northern Ireland, NIFL Premiership

Limavady United
1.7DWLWW
—
Ballymena United
1.1WWDDL
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
44%23%32%
Limavady UnitedMarket 3.3344%DrawMarket 3.5523%Ballymena UnitedMarket 1.9132%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Limavady United44%30%2.263.33+14.1
XDraw23%28%4.273.55-4.8
2Ballymena United32%52%3.091.91-19.9

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes51%

ours 1.96book 1.54

No49%

ours 2.05book 2.29

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricLimavady UnitedBallymena UnitedCombined
Goals scored1.331.502.83
Conceded1.171.172.34
Corners8.58.58.5
Cards0.81.32.2
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

Limavady UnitedBallymena United

Limavady United FC 44%, Ballymena United FC 32%. The safest is “No draw” at 74%.

Limavady United FC 44%Draw 23%Ballymena United FC 32%
1st half
36 · 39 · 25
2nd half
28 · 42 · 31

Bookmakers: 3.33 · 3.55 · 1.91

Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Second half total: Under 1.5

69%1.84
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Limavady United

  • awayPortadown2:2
  • homeCliftonville1:0
  • awayColeraine0:1
  • homeBangor3:1
  • awayCrusaders2:1

Ballymena United

  • awayCliftonville1:0
  • homePortadown2:0
  • awayDungannon Swifts1:1
  • homeCarrick Rangers1:1
  • awayColeraine2:3

Head to head

No head-to-head matches on record.

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
6Carrick Rangers1041515:1513
7Dungannon Swifts94149:1013
8Ballymena United933313:1112
9Cliftonville1040612:1212
10Limavady United93159:1310
11Bangor1012710:225
12Portadown100287:212

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.