Both teams to score
Yes50%
ours 1.98
No50%
ours 2.02
All matches
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Lille — Galatasaray, UEFA Champions League
Europe, UEFA Champions League
Lille
2.7LWLWD
Galatasaray
3.7LWLWW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
59%24%18%
Lille59%Draw24%Galatasaray18%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Lille1.70—
XDraw4.23—
2Galatasaray5.69—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricLilleGalatasarayCombined
Goals scored0.830.331.16
Conceded0.831.172.00
Corners9.09.39.2
Cards1.02.33.3
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
LilleGalatasaray
Lille OSC Métropole 59%, Galatasaray 18%. The safest is “Lille OSC Métropole or draw” at 82%.
Lille OSC Métropole 59%Draw 24%Galatasaray 18%
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total goals: Under 3.5
71%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Lille
- awayNice1:2
- homeTroyes2:0
- homeReal Betis2:3
- awayToulouse1:0
- homePSG2:2
Galatasaray
- awayTrabzonspor0:4
- homeKocaelispor1:0
- awaySporting CP1:3
- awayIstanbul Basaksehir3:2
- homeGoztepe3:2
Head to head
No head-to-head matches on record.
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
64
Petrocub20112:71
Petrocub20112:7165
Slavia Prague10012:30
Slavia Prague10012:3066Lille10012:30
Lille10012:3067
Villarreal10012:30
Villarreal10012:3068
Club Brugge10012:30
Club Brugge10012:3069
Inter Milan10011:20
Inter Milan10011:2070
Atletico Madrid10011:20
Atletico Madrid10011:2071
Napoli10010:10
Napoli10010:1072
Atert Bissen20022:40
Atert Bissen20022:4073Galatasaray10011:30
Galatasaray10011:3074
Tre Fiori20021:30
Tre Fiori20021:3075
Porto10010:20
Porto10010:20Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.