All matches

LDU Quito — Barcelona SC, Primera Categoría Serie A

Ecuador, Primera Categoría Serie A

LDU Quito
2.9WDWDL
—
Barcelona SC
2.6DDWLW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
50%26%24%
LDU QuitoMarket 1.6450%DrawMarket 3.6826%Barcelona SCMarket 5.2824%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1LDU Quito50%61%1.991.64-10.6
XDraw26%27%3.843.68-1.1
2Barcelona SC24%19%4.225.28+4.7

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes52%

ours 1.93book 1.93

No48%

ours 2.08book 1.76

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricLDU QuitoBarcelona SCCombined
Goals scored1.501.172.67
Conceded0.830.831.66
Corners10.59.810.2
Cards2.02.24.2
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

LDU QuitoBarcelona SC

Liga Deportiva Universitaria de Quito 50%, Barcelona SC 24%. The safest is “Liga Deportiva Universitaria de Quito or draw” at 76%.

Liga Deportiva Universitaria de Quito 50%Draw 26%Barcelona SC 24%
1st half
40 · 40 · 20
2nd half
34 · 40 · 26

Bookmakers: 1.64 · 3.68 · 5.28

Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total goals: Over 1.5

67%1.29
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

LDU Quito

  • homeUniversidad Catolica del Ecuador2:1
  • homeCuenca1:1
  • awayTecnico Universitario3:1
  • homeMushuc Runa0:0
  • awayGuayaquil City1:2

Barcelona SC

  • homeDelfin1:1
  • awayAucas1:1
  • homeIndependiente del Valle2:1
  • awayManta0:2
  • homeOrense3:0

Head to head

  • 07/27/26Primera Categoría Serie A1:0
  • 04/04/26Primera Categoría Serie A0:2
  • 11/23/25Primera Categoría Serie A2:2
  • 10/18/25Primera Categoría Serie A3:0
  • 07/25/25Primera Categoría Serie A1:0

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
3Universidad Catolica del Ecuador31149852:2951
4Aucas31148934:3050
5LDU Quito311471033:2549
6Barcelona SC301111832:2544
7CA Libertad311281135:3544
8Leones del Norte3110101132:3340

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.