Both teams to score
Yes50%
ours 1.99
No50%
ours 2.01
All matches
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Lexington SC — Tulsa, USL Championship
USA, USL Championship
Lexington SC
WWWWL
Tulsa
DWDDL
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
53%25%22%
Lexington SC53%Draw25%Tulsa22%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Lexington SC1.89—
XDraw4.05—
2Tulsa4.45—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricLexington SCTulsaCombined
Goals scored3.001.004.00
Conceded1.331.002.33
Corners11.36.89.1
Cards0.73.74.3
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Confident answers
The line the model is most sure about — and how often such answers have come in.
Goals
This market opens with a subscription.
Sign up70%of such answers on goals came inlast 60 days · 890 matches
Corners
This market opens with a subscription.
Sign up69%of such answers on corners came inlast 60 days · 889 matches
Cards
This market opens with a subscription.
Sign up69%of such answers on cards came inlast 60 days · 886 matches
This is a probability, not a guarantee: roughly 3 answers in 10 don’t come in. Bookmaker odds on these lines are low — this block shows the model’s accuracy, not the value of a bet.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
Lexington SCTulsa
Lexington SC 53%, Tulsa Roughnecks FC 22%. The safest is “Lexington SC or draw” at 78%.
Lexington SC 53%Draw 25%Tulsa Roughnecks FC 22%
1st half
32 · 47 · 20
2nd half
46 · 34 · 19
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
First half total: Under 1.5
69%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Lexington SC
- homeEl Paso Locomotive3:1
- awayMonterey Bay3:2
- homeOrange County6:0
- awayOakland Roots4:1
- awaySporting Jacksonville2:3
Tulsa
- homeSacramento Republic1:1
- homeNew Mexico United1:0
- awayEl Paso Locomotive1:1
- awayBrooklyn FC2:2
- awayPhoenix Rising1:2
Head to head
- 07/26/26USL Championship0:0
- 10/05/25USL Championship0:3
- 05/18/25USL Championship0:2
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
5
New Mexico United27137741:3246
New Mexico United27137741:32466
Sacramento Republic271111537:2544
Sacramento Republic271111537:25447Lexington SC271341049:3343
Lexington SC271341049:33438Tulsa27119732:2542
Tulsa27119732:25429
Colorado Springs Switchbacks27117940:3740
Colorado Springs Switchbacks27117940:374010
Hartford Athletic26912529:2639
Hartford Athletic26912529:2639Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.