Both teams to score
Yes48%
ours 2.08
No52%
ours 1.93
All matches
—
Leones — Orsomarso, Primera B
Colombia, Primera B
Leones
0.8DLLDL
Orsomarso
1.4LDLDL
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
32%30%38%
Leones32%Draw30%Orsomarso38%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Leones3.15—
XDraw3.30—
2Orsomarso2.63—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Combos
Three kinds of combos — the most likely combination in each. The most likely of the three is highlighted. Every combination is in the tables below.
Combos come with a subscription: result and total, result and corners, both teams to score and total — probability, fair odds and the market comparison.
Sign upConfident answers
The line the model is most sure about — and how often such answers have come in.
Goals
This market opens with a subscription.
Sign up70%of such answers on goals came inlast 60 days · 1031 matches
Corners
This market opens with a subscription.
Sign up70%of such answers on corners came inlast 60 days · 1030 matches
Cards
This market opens with a subscription.
Sign up70%of such answers on cards came inlast 60 days · 1023 matches
This is a probability, not a guarantee: roughly 3 answers in 10 don’t come in. Bookmaker odds on these lines are low — this block shows the model’s accuracy, not the value of a bet.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
LeonesOrsomarso
Leones FC 32%, Orsomarso SC 38%. The safest is “No draw” at 73%.
Leones FC 32%Draw 30%Orsomarso SC 38%
1st half
34 · 43 · 23
2nd half
21 · 43 · 36
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total corners: Under 11.5
71%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricLeonesOrsomarsoCombined
Goals scored0.330.500.83
Conceded0.670.831.50
Corners9.78.08.8
Cards0.00.30.3
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Form and context
Leones
- homeBarranquilla1:1
- awayInternacional de Palmira0:1
- homeBoca Juniors de Cali1:2
- awayEnvigado FC1:1
- homeAtletico FC0:3
Orsomarso
- homeDeportes Quindio0:1
- awayEnvigado FC0:0
- awayIndependiente Yumbo3:4
- awayReal Santander0:0
- homeAtletico FC0:2
Head to head
- 04/18/26Primera B0:0
- 07/19/25Primera B0:1
- 02/09/25Primera B3:2
- 09/08/24Primera B1:1
- 04/04/24Primera B1:1
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
11
Patriotas FC26971030:3434
Patriotas FC26971030:343412
Boca Juniors de Cali26710933:3431
Boca Juniors de Cali26710933:343113Orsomarso26691120:2827
Orsomarso26691120:282714
Atletico FC27591327:4224
Atletico FC27591327:422415
Real Santander274101323:4122
Real Santander274101323:412216Leones26481416:4120
Leones26481416:4120Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.