Both teams to score
Yes48%
ours 2.07
No52%
ours 1.94
All matches
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Larne — Linfield, NIFL Premiership
Northern Ireland, NIFL Premiership
Larne
3.1WWWWW
Linfield
3.0WWDWW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
51%23%26%
Larne51%Draw23%Linfield26%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Larne1.97—
XDraw4.27—
2Linfield3.88—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricLarneLinfieldCombined
Goals scored1.671.002.67
Conceded0.330.330.66
Corners10.39.39.8
Cards0.81.52.3
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
LarneLinfield
Larne FC 51%, Linfield FC 26%. The safest is “No draw” at 74%.
Larne FC 51%Draw 23%Linfield FC 26%
1st half
31 · 43 · 26
2nd half
37 · 41 · 22
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total corners: Under 11.5
69%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Larne
- awayCarrick Rangers5:2
- homeCliftonville2:0
- awayPortadown2:0
- homeBangor1:0
- homeGlentoran2:1
Linfield
- awayColeraine3:1
- homeCrusaders1:0
- awayPortadown1:1
- awayDungannon Swifts1:0
- homeCarrick Rangers1:0
Head to head
- 04/11/26NIFL Premiership2:0
- 02/24/26NIFL Premiership1:1
- 01/16/26NIFL Premiership0:0
- 12/05/25NIFL Premiership0:0
- 04/18/25NIFL Premiership2:1
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1
Coleraine1081122:1025
Coleraine1081122:10252Linfield971112:622
Linfield971112:6223Larne651012:316
Larne651012:3164
Glentoran1051415:1016
Glentoran1051415:10165
Crusaders1050515:1815
Crusaders1050515:1815Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.