Both teams to score
Yes61%
ours 1.63
No39%
ours 2.59
All matches
—
Rakow — Pogon Szczecin, Ekstraklasa
Poland, Ekstraklasa
Rakow
2.5LLWLL
Pogon Szczecin
2.3WWDDD
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
44%25%31%
Rakow44%Draw25%Pogon Szczecin31%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Rakow2.27—
XDraw3.94—
2Pogon Szczecin3.28—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricRakowPogon SzczecinCombined
Goals scored1.000.831.83
Conceded1.170.331.50
Corners10.38.09.2
Cards2.71.34.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
RakowPogon Szczecin
KS Raków Częstochowa 44%, MKS Pogoń Szczecin 31%. The safest is “No draw” at 75%.
KS Raków Częstochowa 44%Draw 25%MKS Pogoń Szczecin 31%
1st half
39 · 37 · 24
2nd half
33 · 38 · 29
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total cards: Over 2.5
72%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Rakow
- awayKorona Kielce2:3
- homeZaglebie Lubin2:3
- homeMotor Lublin2:1
- awayLech Poznan0:1
- homeGornik Zabrze1:2
Pogon Szczecin
- awayPiast Gliwice2:1
- homeWieczysta Krakow2:0
- homeWisla Plock1:1
- awayZaglebie Lubin0:0
- homeWisla Krakow2:2
Head to head
- 03/08/26Ekstraklasa2:0
- 08/31/25Ekstraklasa0:2
- 04/19/25Ekstraklasa0:1
- 10/20/24Ekstraklasa1:0
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
3
Lech Poznan861117:719
Lech Poznan861117:7194
Wisla Krakow952217:1217
Wisla Krakow952217:12175Pogon Szczecin843112:615
Pogon Szczecin843112:6156
Korona Kielce943212:1015
Korona Kielce943212:10157
Zaglebie Lubin943211:1015
Zaglebie Lubin943211:10158
Piast Gliwice941416:1513
Piast Gliwice941416:15139
GKS Katowice840416:1312
GKS Katowice840416:131210
Jagiellonia840412:1312
Jagiellonia840412:131211
Wisla Plock83239:1211
Wisla Plock83239:121112
Widzew Lodz916213:139
Widzew Lodz916213:13913
Cracovia Krakow92259:148
Cracovia Krakow92259:14814
Radomiak Radom92257:208
Radomiak Radom92257:20815
Slask Wroclaw913511:156
Slask Wroclaw913511:15616
Motor Lublin91359:156
Motor Lublin91359:15617
Wieczysta Krakow812511:175
Wieczysta Krakow812511:17518Rakow910812:213
Rakow910812:213Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.