All matches

Gornik Zabrze — Legia Warsaw, Ekstraklasa

Poland, Ekstraklasa

Gornik Zabrze
2.4DWWWW
—
Legia Warsaw
2.8WDWDD
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
46%26%28%
Gornik Zabrze46%Draw26%Legia Warsaw28%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Gornik Zabrze46%2.17—
XDraw26%3.79—
2Legia Warsaw28%3.63—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes55%

ours 1.81

No45%

ours 2.24

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricGornik ZabrzeLegia WarsawCombined
Goals scored0.671.171.84
Conceded0.170.670.84
Corners7.78.07.8
Cards3.01.74.7
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

Gornik ZabrzeLegia Warsaw

KS Górnik Zabrze 46%, KP Legia Warszawa 28%. The safest is “No draw” at 73%.

KS Górnik Zabrze 46%Draw 26%KP Legia Warszawa 28%
1st half
39 · 39 · 22
2nd half
31 · 41 · 28
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Second half total: Over 0.5

69%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Gornik Zabrze

  • awayMotor Lublin0:0
  • awayKorona Kielce2:0
  • homeLech Poznan2:1
  • awayCracovia Krakow1:0
  • awayRakow2:1

Legia Warsaw

  • awayJagiellonia3:1
  • homeWidzew Lodz1:1
  • awayMotor Lublin3:2
  • homeSlask Wroclaw1:1
  • awayPiast Gliwice1:1

Head to head

  • 04/11/26Ekstraklasa1:1
  • 10/05/25Ekstraklasa3:1
  • 04/06/25Ekstraklasa1:2
  • 09/28/24Ekstraklasa1:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1Gornik Zabrze971116:822
2Legia Warsaw954019:819
3Lech Poznan861117:719
4Wisla Krakow952217:1217

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.