All matches

Legia Warsaw — Wisla Krakow, Ekstraklasa

Poland, Ekstraklasa

Legia Warsaw
2.8WDWDD
—
Wisla Krakow
2.1WWDWD
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
47%26%27%
Legia WarsawMarket 1.9647%DrawMarket 3.7026%Wisla KrakowMarket 3.3427%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Legia Warsaw47%51%2.131.96-4.1
XDraw26%27%3.893.70-1.3
2Wisla Krakow27%30%3.663.34-2.6

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes58%

ours 1.73book 1.51

No42%

ours 2.37book 2.39

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricLegia WarsawWisla KrakowCombined
Goals scored2.331.674.00
Conceded1.001.002.00
Corners8.58.78.6
Cards1.32.33.7
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

Legia WarsawWisla Krakow

KP Legia Warszawa 47%, Wisła Kraków 27%. The safest is “No draw” at 73%.

KP Legia Warszawa 47%Draw 26%Wisła Kraków 27%
1st half
37 · 36 · 27
2nd half
31 · 42 · 27

Bookmakers: 1.96 · 3.70 · 3.34

Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total goals: Under 3.5

70%1.48
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Legia Warsaw

  • awayJagiellonia3:1
  • homeWidzew Lodz1:1
  • awayMotor Lublin3:2
  • homeSlask Wroclaw1:1
  • awayPiast Gliwice1:1

Wisla Krakow

  • homeSlask Wroclaw2:1
  • homeJagiellonia2:0
  • awayKorona Kielce1:1
  • homeWieczysta Krakow2:0
  • awayPogon Szczecin2:2

Head to head

No head-to-head matches on record.

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1Gornik Zabrze971116:822
2Legia Warsaw954019:819
3Lech Poznan861117:719
4Wisla Krakow952217:1217
5Pogon Szczecin843112:615
6Korona Kielce943212:1015

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.