All matches

Legia Warsaw — Lech Poznan, Ekstraklasa

Poland, Ekstraklasa

Legia Warsaw
2.8WDWDD
—
Lech Poznan
3.4WLLWW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
41%26%34%
Legia Warsaw41%Draw26%Lech Poznan34%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Legia Warsaw41%2.46—
XDraw26%3.88—
2Lech Poznan34%2.97—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes59%

ours 1.69

No41%

ours 2.46

Over 2.5 goals

This market opens with a subscription.

Sign up

Over 9.5 corners

This market opens with a subscription.

Sign up

Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricLegia WarsawLech PoznanCombined
Goals scored1.330.832.16
Conceded0.830.831.66
Corners9.313.511.4
Cards1.51.02.5
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

The other six metrics — with a subscription

Free full access for 3 days when you sign up

Start freeSign in

Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

Legia WarsawLech Poznan

KP Legia Warszawa 41%, KKS Lech Poznań 34%. The safest is “No draw” at 74%.

KP Legia Warszawa 41%Draw 26%KKS Lech Poznań 34%
1st half
33 · 36 · 31
2nd half
32 · 40 · 28
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription

Sign in

More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Second half total: Over 0.5

71%
High variancelow probability, high price

Two more scenarios — with a subscription

Sign in

Form and context

Legia Warsaw

  • awayJagiellonia3:1
  • homeWidzew Lodz1:1
  • awayMotor Lublin3:2
  • homeSlask Wroclaw1:1
  • awayPiast Gliwice1:1

Lech Poznan

  • homeRadomiak Radom5:1
  • awayCrystal Palace0:4
  • awayGornik Zabrze1:2
  • homeRakow1:0
  • homeJagiellonia2:1

Head to head

  • 04/26/26Ekstraklasa0:4
  • 10/26/25Ekstraklasa0:0
  • 05/11/25Ekstraklasa0:1
  • 11/10/24Ekstraklasa2:5

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1Gornik Zabrze971116:822
2Legia Warsaw954019:819
3Lech Poznan861117:719
4Wisla Krakow952217:1217
5Pogon Szczecin843112:615

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription

Free full access for 3 days when you sign up

Start freePlans

Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.